Seahawks @ Dolphins: Preview, Expectations and Keys to Victory

The Miami Dolphins (1-2) will face off against the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. The Dolphins will look to continue building off of a dominating win against the Jaguars. The Seahawks, led by Russell Wilson’s historic start, are the hottest team in the NFL.

A look at the Dolphins

The Dolphins defeated the Jaguars last week by a score of 31-13 . It was by far their best performance, especially on the offensive side of the ball where Fitzpatrick went 18/20 and had 2 TDs. The defense wasn’t perfect, but considering how bad they looked after the first two losses, this was a drastic improvement.

Offense:

Total yards: 25th (324.3 ypg)

Pass yards: 24th (216.3 ypg)

Rush yards: 20th (108 ypg)

The Dolphins offense is beginning to find a nice rhythm. It is still a ways away from being touted as one of the premier offenses in the league, but this start has been respectable for a rebuilding team.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been putting up the massive stat lines that birthed the nickname ‘Fitzmagic.’ Instead, he’s been more reserved, averaging 226 yards per game with 4 TDs and 3 interceptions.

This is a guy that would sometimes throw for 4 TDs and 3 interceptions in one game. He has done a fine job as a game manager.

The offensive line has been playing terrifically for Miami, with a ton of that praise directed at rookies left tackle Austin Jackson and right guard Solomon Kindley. Fitzpatrick was only sacked once last week, and the 5 sacks allowed on the season are in the top half of the league. Only 10 QBs who have played all three games have been sacked fewer times than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The offensive lines’ progress has also led to the arise of running back Myles Gaskin. The second-year RB surprised many, myself included, when he dominated the touches for Miami in Week 1. The script hasn’t changed, as Gaskin is averaging 18 touches and 81 total yards per game. His versatility as a pass catcher and his ability to find space makes him the clear-cut lead back for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins leading receiver… isn’t a wide receiver… technically, but many could argue with his current role, he basically is. It is tight end Mike Gesicki. Gesicki has 175 yards this season, which is 6th among tight ends. He also has 2 TDs.

Wide receiver DeVante Parker has 169 yards on the season. That would put him on pace for just over 900 yards, which is well shy of his breakout season last year, where had 1,202. Again, this a small sample size and he is bound to string together some bigger games. He was also forced to leave Week 1’s game versus New England with a hamstring injury.

Another important note: He was lined up against Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White in the first two games, which are two of the best lockdown corners in the entire NFL.

Wide receiver Isaiah Ford has also been a nice little hidden gem for this team, doing an amazing job at getting open. He had 76 yards in Week 2 against Buffalo.

Wide receiver Preston Williams, who was a favorite to have a breakout season, has got off to a disappointing start. He has the lowest catch percentage in the NFL, catching only 5 of his 14 targets. He is also second to last in separation per NFL Next Gen Stats (DeVante Parker is last.)

Defense:

Total yards allowed: 25th (399.3 ypg)

Passing yards allowed: 25th (265.7 ypg)

Rushing yards allowed: 25th (133.7 ypg)

The defense has been the weakest link for this team. In Week 1, they were dominated by Cam Newton. In Week 2, Josh Allen torched the defense, taking advantage of a mismatch between Stefon Diggs and Noah Igbinoghene.

But in Week 3, the team stepped up, holding the Jaguars to 13 points, and making things hard for Gardner Minshew. Xavien Howard had a late game interception, and Kyle Van Noy had a clutch strip-sack.

No wide receiver for the Jaguars had more than 43 yards.

Rookie corner Noah Igbinoghene who had a rough outing against the Bills in Week 2, bounced back last week. He broke up a pass in the end zone, and had several big tackles.

Byron Jones, who missed last week and most of Week 2 with a groin injury, was limited at practice. His status is listed as doubtful.

The Dolphins applied solid pressure last week, namely with Emmannuel Ogbah, Zach Sieler and Kyle Van Noy, but struggled to slow down running back James Robinson. Their issues tackling still plague the team, and have really hurt players like linebacker Elandon Roberts. 

A Look at the Seahawks

Offense:

Total yards: 9th (408 ypg)

Passing yards: 5th (289.7 ypg)

Rushing yards: 16th (118.3 ypg)

The Seahawks biggest strength is obvious. It’s Russell Wilson, who is off to a historic start to the season. Through 3 games, he has 14 TDs, which is the most in NFL history.

Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, he has the second most time to throw, trailing only Baker Mayfield. He also has the least “aggressiveness,” which is a stat calculated by attempts thrown into tight windows. In other words, the guys he’s throwing to are typically wide open.

Last week, the Cowboys were able to apply solid pressure, especially with Aldon Smith along the edge, but at other times, Russell Wilson had the entire day to throw.

The Seahawks have had some great production from running back Chris Carson the past two years, as he finished both seasons with over 1,000 yards. But after suffering a knee sprain after a dirty play, his availability for this game is still unknown, which could open up the door for Carlos Hyde.

With Wilson having the season he’s having, it’s kind of a given that the receivers are also putting up huge numbers. The Seahawks have two receivers in the top 10 in receiving yards, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Lockett also leads the NFL in receiving TDs with four, while Metcalf has three.

Both receivers have been capitalizing on the deep game, as they had 3 catches of 40+ yards last week.

Defense

Total yards allowed: 32nd (497.3 ypg)

Passing yards allowed: 32nd (430.7 ypg)

Rushing yards allowed: 2nd (66.7 ypg)

The struggles for the Seahawks have come on the defensive side of the ball. Remember that stat about Russell Wilson’s historic pace through the first 3 games of the season?

Well, the Seahawks have also given up the most passing yards through the first 3 games in NFL history.

No team has given up more first downs (65) than the Seahawks.

No team has given up more passes of 20+ yards (18) than the Seahawks.

No team has given up more passes of 40+ yards (6)… you get the point. The secondary has been terrible for Seattle. And sure, one could argue that the high efficiency on offense forces teams to pass against them, but they have been in two close games that they could have lost, and that would have fallen on the secondary.

In Week 1, the Falcons had three receivers with over 100 yards against them. In Week 2, Julian Edelman had a career high 179 yards. In Week 3, the Cowboys had three receivers finish the game with over 100 yards.

The issue is in part because they have struggled to get to the quarterback, amassing only five sacks all season. Their leader in sacks is safety Jamal Adams, who will likely miss this game due to a groin injury.

If there has been any positive about the Seahawks defense, it has been their ability to stop the run. Looking at the total yards won’t tell the whole story because teams are forced to abandon the run to keep up with Seattle, but even then…

They held Ezekiel Elliot to 34 yards, with an average of 2.4 yards per carry. They held Sony Michel to 19 with 2.7 yards per carry, while also holding Cam Newton to 47. And they kept Todd Gurley to 56.

With the ability to throw with ease on the Seahawks, I don’t think their ability to “stop the run” should strike fear in an opposing offense.

Expectations

It’s a routine, less demanding game from Russell Wilson. I’m expecting Russell Wilson to be efficient. He will still show everyone why he deserves to be MVP, but he won’t have to throw for 350+ yards and 5 TDs.

There are several big passing plays from Seattle. Miami did a good job containing a Jacksonville team that was missing D.J. Chark, but I’m not sure Xavien Howard can prevent D.K. Metcalf from winning a jump ball. I’m not sure whoever is lined up in slot, Nik Needham or Jamal Perry, really has any sort of chance against Tyler Lockett.

DeVante Parker feasts. The only scenario where Parker won’t see a high volume, is if the Dolphins are out in front, which I’m not expecting. If it’s close, they will need him to move down field. If they’re behind, he will have plenty of opportunities. I would not be surprised if Parker has over 120 yards in this game.

Keys to the Victory

Back in Week 14 of 2018, the Dolphins faced off against the New England Patriots. I said in my preview, it would require a miracle for Miami to pull off the victory. Well, it turns out the Dolphins had a miracle in them that week. This is another one of those situations — this may require a miracle.

Apply pressure on Russell Wilson. Now guys, if I could truly materialize the keys to victory in stopping Wilson, I would have a headset on and be on a sideline, not behind a microphone. This is an incredibly hard task that is easier said than done. Regardless, this secondary is already fighting an uphill battle if Byron Jones isn’t there. Forcing Wilson to throw the ball quick would be the only way to relieve some of the pressure from them.

Hold down the gas. Again, easier said than done, but the Dolphins had  two quarters of really good football last week. They will need all four to win this. It seems common for teams in the NFL to want to manage the clock and slow the game once they have a lead. If the Dolphins get a lead, they can’t sway from how they got in that position.  Plus, Miami’s natural home field advantage (the heat) could help with that. They will likely wear white uniforms, while Seattle is in their dark uniforms in the Miami heat.

Spread the ball. As we have seen, the Seahawks defense is capable of being attacked from multiple angles. Little known Cowboys receiver Cedric Wilson was on the radar after his massive game against Seattle, as was Falcons Russell Gage. The Dolphins will need to have big days from more than one receiver in this game to hang in there against this high octane Seahawks offense.