The Miami Dolphins (3-3) will face off against the Los Angeles Rams (5-2) this Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The Dolphins franchise is legendary in large part because of two individuals, the late coach Don Shula and quarterback Dan Marino. The latter was one of the greatest quarterbacks the game has ever seen, and is the reason Dolphins fans have had high expectations for their quarterbacks over the last two decades.

The Dolphins haven’t found another Marino yet, and maybe never will, but this Sunday could be the start of a brand-new prosperous era; the era of Tua Tagovailoa. 

A look at the Dolphins

Offense 

• Total yards: 22nd (354.3 yds/gm)
• Passing yards: 17th (249.2 yds/gm)
• Rushing yards: 22nd (105.2 yds/gm)

This will be the first professional start for Tagovailoa, coming two weeks after he made his NFL debut against the New York Jets. He played one drive, and went 2-for-2 for 9 yards.

As with many rookies, it’s difficult to predict how they will adapt to the professional level. We have seen college stars collapse in the NFL, and we have seen guys who were average in college take a massive leap in the pros. Most seem to think Tua’s generational talent gives him a good chance at being the next big star of this league.

This will be Tagovailoa’s first start since he suffered a serious hip injury in November of 2019. At the time of the injury, it was regarded as career-threatening. He has since made a full recovery, but admits he isn’t sure how it will feel getting hit for the first time.

“It’s been a long time coming, but that’s the nature of the game,” Tagovailoa said. “Every hit is different in football… I don’t think you can ever prepare for hits.”

Many media members, such as ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky and Mina Kimes, have criticized the move to name Tagovailoa starter. They believe the offensive line that Miami currently has isn’t good enough to protect the rookie against a tough Rams front.

The Dolphins offensive line has been respectable all season. At no point have they gotten overpowered — but it’s important to note how well Fitzpatrick can handle pressure and move in the pocket.

The Dolphins offensive line will once again be without rookie left tackle Austin Jackson.  They  will presumably rely on rookie right tackle Robert Hunt to protect Tua’s blindside. It will be interesting to see whether the Dolphins elect to keep Jesse Davis, who is more experienced, at left tackle, or move him back to right side where he started the season.

This game should also feature another heavy dose of running back Myles Gaskin. Gaskin continues to be effective this season, coming off the best game of his career in Week 6, finishing with 126 total yards.

Running back Matt Breida was hardly involved against the Jets, finishing with only 22 total yards.

Running back Jordan Howard, who has been mentioned in trade talks, has been a healthy scratch from the last two games, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case again this week.

Wide receiver DeVante Parker still leads the team in nearly every receiving category. Week 6 was his least productive game of the season, as he finished with only 35 yards. He is currently on pace for 971 yards this season, which is respectable — but notably lower than his 1,202 yards last season.

Earlier this week, the Dolphins extended tight end Adam Shaheen. Shaheen had his best game of the season in Week 6, recording 51 yards receiving and a touchdown. The tight ends for Miami (Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe and Shaheen) have been reliable red zone targets, recording five of the team’s 10 receiving touchdowns this season.

Gesicki is second on the team in receiving yards with 281. He has been the definition of boom or bust this season. He has two games with over 90 yards. In the other four games, he is averaging 15 yards receiving.

Wide receiver Preston Williams leads the Dolphins in receiving touchdowns with three. Williams, like Gesicki, has been a boom or bust. He had a career-high 106-yard receiving performance against San Francisco, but in the other five games, he combined for 107 yards.

Overall, the Dolphins offense has slowly become more aggressive. Their best performance was in Week 5 against San Francisco, a game which Ryan Fitzpatrick went 5-for-6 on passes beyond 20 yards. In the Dolphins other five games combined, Fitzpatrick has gone 4 for 6 on passes beyond 20 yards, showing a reluctancy to attack deep down the field. Fitzpatrick also had an underwhelming 50% completion on passes beyond 10 yards, which could have been a factor in the team’s decision to make the switch to Tagovailoa.

Defense

• Total yards allowed: 16th (360.2 yds/gm)
• Passing yards allowed: 16th (236 yds/gm)
• Rushing yards allowed: 19th (124.2 yds/gm)

This will be the first time head coach Brian Flores faces the Los Angeles Rams since Super Bowl LIII, where Flores served as the de facto defensive coordinator for the Patriots. The Rams came into that game as the second-highest scoring team in the NFL. The Belichick/Flores-led Patriots defense put on a historic showcase of dominance, holding the Rams to only three points.

The Dolphins defense has been the very clear weakness of the team early in the season, but after two solid outings, it may be time to ease up on them. In week 6, they shut out the Jets in a performance that included two interceptions and three sacks. The week before, they dominated the 49ers, getting five sacks and recording two interceptions in the first half.

The star of the defense is once again Xavien Howard. Howard leads the NFL in interceptions with four, and has recorded a pick in each of the last four games. Aside from a bad outing against Seattle and DK Metcalf, Howard has been playing lights out. He leads the league with three games in which he allowed 0 yards in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.

Safeties Eric Rowe, Bobby McCain and Brandon Jones have also been having great seasons. Rowe is second on the team in tackles with 31 and Jones isn’t far behind with 21. The two, with help from the linebackers, have been masterful at neutralizing opposing tight ends. The Dolphins have surrendered only 213 yards to tight ends, which is the third fewest in the NFL.

Linebacker Jerome Baker has been all over the field this season, leading the team in tackles with 46. He has been one of the primary players used in blitzes over the last two games, blitzing 13 times against the Jets, per Pro Football Reference.

Linebacker Kyle Van Noy was inactive in Week 6 against the Jets. He was limited at practice yesterday. Though the team didn’t struggle without him in their last game, he has been pretty consistent at applying pressure, and his versatility in coverage makes him an important part for this defense.

The rest of the linebacker group would have to step up if Van Noy surprisingly is unable to play this week. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel has been a hidden gem for this team, as he is second on the team in sacks with 2.5.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah has a legitimate case for the best performer on defense. He has been getting to the quarterback at will this season. His five sacks have him in the top-10 in the league. He has recorded four sacks over the last three games.

Ogbah has been getting help on the defensive line from Zach Sieler, who is already becoming a fan-favorite for his high-intensity style of play. Alongside them has been Christian Wilkins. Wilkins is coming off one of his best games as well, where he recorded a sack and two pass deflections at the line of scrimmage.

The Dolphins improved defensive performances could be attributed to the solid pressure applied and frequency of the blitzes. Through the first four games, the Dolphins sent an average of 17.25 players on a blitz. Over the last two games, they have sent an average of 44.5.

A look at the Rams 

Offense

• Total yards: 10th (385.7 yds/gm)
• Passing yards: 18th (247 yds/gm)
• Rushing yards: 7th (138.7 yds/gm)

As mentioned earlier, the Rams offense under head coach Sean McVay was at one time the apple of every NFL franchise’s eyes. His success led the way to several other young, offensive-minded coaches being hired, as it seemed like it was a race to find the next McVay. Since the Super Bowl though, the offense hasn’t quite looked the same, which is where we are at today.

A passing offense that at one point was capable of having three 1,000-yard receivers, is now on pace to not have any. Quarterback Jared Goff was a large part of the teams’ success in 2018, a year which he had 4,688 yards passing, with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He too has seemingly snapped back to reality. After a down year with only 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 2019, he now has 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 2020. He looks better than in 2019, but still aways from his 2018 form.

The 2018 offense also featured Todd Gurley, who was the league’s rushing touchdown leader and a First-team All-Pro. The Rams are currently replacing Gurley with a committee consisting of Darrell Henderson Jr., Malcolm Brown, and rookie Cam Akers. The trio looks solid, with each of them averaging over four yards per carry.

The quick and shifty Henderson has been the more versatile of the three backs, as he leads the team in rushing with 411 yards and has the most receiving yards out of the backfield with 109 yards.

Brown has been the more powerful of the three runners, coming in for most of the teams red zone opportunities and obvious run situations.

The Rams offense revolves heavily around the use of motions, crossing routes and bunch formations. Goff has an averaged “completed air-yards” of 5.3, which is in the bottom quarter of the league, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That essentially means his passes are not traveling far through the air.

Wide receiver Cooper Kupp leads the team in receiving yards, catches and targets. He has 417 yards receiving on the season, with 175 of those coming after the catch. He is 7th in the NFL in yards after the catch.

Wide receiver Robert Woods leads the Rams in receiving TDs with three. He is not far behind from Kupp in yards after the catch. Of his 351 yards, 170 of them have come after the catch, which is 9th in the NFL.

With the frequent use of motions, the Rams also like to use these receivers on sweep plays. Kupp and Woods have combined for 132 yards rushing this season, with an average of over 7 yards per carry.

The Rams also have a group of athletic tight ends, including Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, and Johnny Mundt. Higbee has missed the past two games with a hand injury. Everett and Mundt were both moderately involved last week, combining for 75 yards and a touchdown. Higbee was held out of practice again on Thursday.

Defense

• Total yards allowed: 6th (313 yds/gm)
• Passing yards allowed: 5th (212 yds/gm)
• Rushing yards allowed: 7th (100.4 yds/gm)

The Rams defense now appears to be the strength of this team. But if one is looking for a reason to think the Rams defense is overrated, the argument could be made that they have faced several weak offenses. So far this season, they have faced the Washington Football Team, Eagles and Giants — all in the bottom-10 of the NFL.

They are led by two-time defensive player of the year Aaron Donald. Donald has not regressed in any form, as he is second in the NFL in sacks with 8.0 on the season. Four of Donald’s sacks came against Washington in Week 5. He also leads the team in tackles for a loss with 9, and forced fumbles with 2.

Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is also a force on this defense. Most are familiar with his unique skillset of being able to lock down premier receivers while also being a physical tackler. As mentioned earlier with Xavien Howard — Ramsey has also done a great job at locking down his man this year. He trails Howard with 2 games without allowing a yard in coverage, per PFF.

Safety John Johnson III has been calling the plays in the huddle for the Rams. He has the fifth most tackles in the league among safeties.

Linebacker Micah Kiser leads the Rams in tackles with 53. He struggled in Week 1 against Dallas, having recorded seven missed tackles in the game. In Week 2, he bounced back by winning NFC Player of the Week. Those ups and downs summarize a lot about the linebacker group for the Rams.

Linebacker Leonard Floyd is coming off the best game of his career, totaling 2 sacks and 3 QB hits against his former team.

Now, it’s not every week that I have to write about an opposing team’s punter, but here we are. The Rams have the best punter in football, someone who will probably go down as one of the best to ever play the position: Johnny Hekker.

Hekker is coming off of a historic game, where he punted five balls, and each of those landed within the 10-yard line. Hekker is a four-time First-team All-Pro, and yeah, he’s that good. If the Dolphins force the Rams to punt, just be ready for them to be pinned far in their own territory.

Expectations

The Rams feast on yards after-the-catch. The Rams offense features an abundance of motions, crossing routes, and just a general style of horizontal movement. Players like Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp thrive on beating their man to the inside on the short to intermediate routes, and getting yards after the catch. I like Xavien Howard’s ability as a ball hawk, but I’m not sure he’s quick enough to keep up with these shifty players in the short game, or in the open-field. I worry a player like Nik Needham or Jamal Perry will struggle in the slot. The Rams use of bunch formations and pick plays could lead to some confusion, causing short completions to turn into big gains.

Tua has an alright performance. While I am optimistic about Tua’s future, and I think there are some better matchups for him on the schedule, this is just a tough one to see him thriving in. I expect the team to focus on the short game to build his confidence up, which will limit his upside in this matchup. I imagine there are a few plays that showcase his talent, but I could also see a him having some rookie hiccups and throwing several interceptions. Again, nothing to worry about, but at the same time, I would be (pleasantly) surprised if it’s a dominating game in his first start.

A heavy dose of Myles Gaskin. This partly ties into the previous point, in regards to focusing on the short to intermediate game, which would help Gaskin. But I also expect there to be a lot of pressure and blitzes from the Rams. That could lead to Gaskin taking on a role as a safety valve for Tua, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has his highest reception total in this game.

Keys to Victory

Limit Aaron Donald. I’ve been a broken record when it comes to this point, but Donald is arguably the best player in the NFL. Even the top-tier offensive lines have to be on their game to stop Donald. The Dolphins have an offensive line consisting of two rookies, two average veterans and a liability in Jesse Davis. At best, they have been slightly above average, and at worst, they have been slightly below average — but they have never been outright bad. This can’t be a game where they look bad.

The Dolphins secondary must be physical and communicate. The secondary has looked great recently, but this game may force them to be more physical and make key tackles in the open-field. We’ve seen them succeed downfield as ballhawks and in coverage, but we’re going to need to see how they fair at containing their man in the short game when the ball is already in the receivers hands. With all the motions, and bunch formations the Rams will use to create mismatches, the communication in the secondary must be on point. I’m already expecting a game with a high amount of yards after the catch, but if the Dolphins can’t keep it under control, it could define that side of the ball.

Attack the center of the field. Going back and looking at the Rams losses to the Bills and 49ers,  both Garoppolo and Allen mercilessly attacked the center of the field. Allen was 9/9 on passes between the hashmarks, and Garoppolo was 15/16. Whether this means getting Gesicki involved, or more of Isaiah Ford, it seems like the undersized Rams linebackers struggle in pass coverage.