After an exciting offseason that had Dolphins fans across the world begging for a return to action, we can finally say that the NFL is back this week as Miami is scheduled to face off in their season opener against the New England Patriots.
Like the two previous seasons, the Dolphins will start the year against the Patriots. However, unlike 2020 and 2021, this year the Dolphins will kick off the year at home.
The Dolphins have defeated the Pats in their last three matchups, a shift from the longtime success New England had against the team.
Miami defeated New England in the final game of the 2021 season by a score of 33-24. Though the numbers would signify a ton of offense, it was the defense that really left a stamp on this game.
Xavien Howard had a pick-6. Both Jaelan Phillips and Sam Eguavoen had fumble recoveries, and Mac Jones would finish with a QBR of just 12.7.
Offensively in this game, it was something that was uncharacteristic of the team — as the running game was wildly successful. Miami would finish the game with 195 yards on the ground, with Tua only having to throw for 109 yards.
A look at the Dolphins
Now as we look at the Dolphins 2022 team. There are new faces to mention.
Of course, there’s Tyreek Hill, who is an absolute monster. Hill is the type of downfield threat that Miami has coveted for years. He accounted for 36% of the Chiefs air yards, and will bring that to a team did not test teams deep.
Last year, Tua had the third-shortest average intended air yards per pass, ahead of only Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger.
So, for the most part, everyone knows what he brings to the team, and his success has also translated to success against the Pats in the regular season.
Against New England, Hill is averaging 100.3 yards per game, and has recorded five touchdowns in four matchups.
The Pats were able to shut down Hill in the playoffs in 2019, but by putting an extreme level of focus on him.
Unfortunately for Patriots fans, Hill isn’t the only weapon on this Dolphins offense. Receiver Jaylen Waddle will be heavily incorporated if he is healthy enough to play.
Waddle set the NFL record for receptions in a season by a rookie with 104 last year. Though his average depth of target (7.1) left a ton to be desired in terms of production, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Hill’s presence alone doesn’t open up a ton of room for Waddle to work with.
The Dolphins lost DeVante Parker, who we will talk about briefly on the other side of the ball, but added another dynamic weapon in Cedric Wilson Jr. Wilson, who was previously with the Dallas Cowboys, was a bit of a boom or bust player.
He had two games with over 100 yards, including last year’s season finale against the Eagles where he record 119 yards and two TDs.
He has big play potential, but I think his reliability will allow him to serve a different role as a safety valve in this team.
The Dolphins also still have tight end Mike Gesicki, who as a receiver is a mismatch nightmare. However, reports began circulating during the offseason that the team’s new scheme under Mike McDaniel prefers to use him as a blocker. With that being Gesicki’s weakness, rumors began circulating that he was no longer a fit with the team.
That is left to be seen, but he will begin the season against a team that has historically given him problems. Last year, Gesicki finished with 5 targets, 2 catches and 22 years against the Patriots in their two matchups.
Now, the Dolphins offensive line was atrocious last season. As a result, Tua had the third-shortest time to throw in football with 2.52 seconds, and the Dolphins finished 30th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry.
The Dolphins made some adjustments, including the addition of Terron Armstead, which should be a significant bolster to this unit.
On Top of that, the Dolphins added dynamic weapons in Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. No exaggeration, Mostert is a top back in the NFL when healthy, the only issue is he could not stay on the field.
Mostert was the fastest ball carrier in 2020, recording the two fastest times.
It’s been suggested that Mostert will have more of a role than expected, and given his experience with McDaniel, Mostert could see the bulk of the work if he starts off hot. With New England being in the bottom quarter of rush yards allowed, and yards per carry allowed, it’s possible the Dolphins find success early with him in the run game.
The Dolphins also added Chase Edmonds who is one of the more dynamic backs in football. He’s electric and hard to get on the ground, and with Tua loving to dish it around the line of scrimmage, there’s a good chance he sees around 5 targets a game in this offense.
Defense
Personnel-wise, not too much has changed for Miami. Coaching wise, losing Brian Flores who commanded that defense could be huge. The Dolphins retained Josh Boyer, who is expected to keep many of the same elements, but whether there’s a drop off in quality is left to be seen.
The Dolphins have a young, core group of guys who could make a leap to the elite category this season.
I’ve mentioned heavily throughout the preseason that Jaelan Phillips looks unstoppable.
Phillips 8.5 sacks last year were the second-most by a rookie, trailing only Micah Parsons. Him reaching the double digits this year seems likely.
The Dolphins had the second highest blitz percentage in all of football, and the most quarterback knockdowns in 2021.
Dolphins safety Jevon Holland already seems to be becoming one of the leaders of this team. Many will mention his poor stats in pass coverage, but his big play potential and high motor have many on the lookout for him to take a huge leap into the elite category.
A look at the Patriots
The Patriots will be led by second-year quarterback Mac Jones. Jones was about as efficient as you could want from a rookie quarterback, and even though he was babied to some degree, Jones displayed enough poise and comfort to warrant praise.
He finished the season 13th in the NFL in passing, and had a respectable 22 touchdown passes to 13 interceptions.
And though Dolphins fans love to mock how much was requested from Mac Jones, he did finish the year in the top quarter of air yards per attempt and had more completed air yards per completion than Tagovailoa.
The Patriots did try to ease the pressure off Jones by running the ball, finishing with the 8th most rush attempts in the NFL.
In large part, this meant a ton of work for RB Damien Harris. Harris finished in the top 10 last year in rushing yards and had the fifth most rushes of 20+ yards among RBs.
He also had a ton of work in the red zone, as his 15 rush TDs were the second most in the NFL.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson also began seeing a heavy dose of usage towards the middle portion of the season. He finished the season with a respectable 606 yards and 4.6 yards per carry.
With the Patriots historic level of unpredictability with their running backs, either one of these guys could end up dominating the carries and New England will likely ride the hot hand.
The Patriots receiver unit is improved, but not improved enough to place them as “above average” by any metric.
While many regard Jakobi Meyers as the teams primary receiver after being a focal point of the passing game, I believe that newly acquired DeVante Parker will solidify himself as the WR1.
While many would rather sit back and ridicule Parker for some of his shortcomings with Miami – it’s important to reflect on the positives he left on the field when he was healthy. Throughout his career with the Dolphins, Parker reeled in some of the more acrobatic catches we’ve seen in recent years.
He’s able to use his massive, 6 foot 3 inch frame on contested catches along the sidelines effectively. He’s also surprisingly elusive in the middle of the field where he was able to rake in sneaky amounts of yards on slant routes.
Do I expect him to replicate his 1,202 yard season from 2019? No, but in this game in particular, he’s the Patriots receiver with the most imposing athletic ability that I’m worried about.
Defense
The Patriots secondary lost a cornerstone of the defense in J.C. Jackson. Jackson was an interception machine, recording 17 interceptions in the past two seasons.
Without Jackson, the Patriots secondary will consist of Jalen Mills, Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty and Jonathan Jones.
While the Pats struggled against the run, they did fairly well against the pass. They gave up the second lowest completion percentage, the second lowest yards per attempt, and second fewest total passing yards.
Matthew Judon remains a force on the Patriots defense. Judon finished 7th in the NFL in sacks last year, tied with Aaron Donald with 12.5 So while Miami got a significant upgrade with Terron Armstead, Austin Jackson will still have to hold up at the right tackle position to keep Judon at bay.
In classic Belichick fashion, the linebacker group for New England has a handful of hard-nosed players like JaWhaun Bentley and Mack Wilson. However, the team lost Kyle Van Noy who was always dependable in pass coverage.
Expectations:
Raheem Mostert leads the way for the Dolphins ground game. This is a bit of a gut-feeling, but I think Mostert’s previous experience with McDaniel is going to give him an early edge. McDaniel finds unique ways to get his backs in space, and I think they ride the hot hand with Mostert in this one. I expect him to have over 10 carries and 60 yards rushing, while Edmonds is also involved.
The Patriots have over 120 yards rushing from Stevenson and Harris. I believe that the Dolphins biggest glaring weakness defensively is their linebacker group. I think Belichick will try to test this group early on, and stick with last year’s formula. And I expect this to be a fairly successful approach for New England until Miami is able to put points on the board and change the pace of the game. However, while the game remains slow, I think that will mean a heavy dose of the New England rushing attack.
A big game from a receiver not-named Tyreek Hill. I say that not as a slight against Hill, but I think the brunt of the focus will be on him early on. Wilson isn’t necessarily a proven receiver in this league, and Waddle is still very much a young face, and I feel like Belichick will force Miami’s hand in their direction. With that being said, neither of these two players are slouches and they should have some decent opportunities. I believe either Waddle or Wilson finishes with over 65 yards in this game.
Keys to Victory
Force the Patriots to throw the ball. Last year, Jones wasn’t required to put the team on his back. It’s not known how much the Pats will expect from him, but regardless, it’s important that the Dolphins force him to beat them. Allowing him to do the bare minimum while Stevenson and Harris gash the defense would be unacceptable. Force Jones to air it out to a below-average group of receivers.
Utilize your weapons offensively. I know this sounds pretty obvious, but the Dolphins had some dynamic weapons offensively last year that were not used to their fullest abilities. Jaylen Waddle was used almost exclusively down the field. Mike Gesicki was a ghost in several key games. Now with Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins cant afford to be sitting on all of these weapons without taking some actual chances down the field. Look like a functional offense, be aggressive, and use the speed of these guys how it’s intended.
Tua needs to play mistake-free football. Limiting turnovers is always a key to success, but I’m not worried about the skill-position players fumbling the ball away all too much. However, in practice we saw some gems from Tua, but also some passes that left you scratching your head. Throughout the 2021 season, we saw Tua reduce the typical one or two just clueless-type of plays, but it wasn’t enough to say that that part of his game has been eradicated.