The Miami Dolphins (8-5) will go up against the New England Patriots 6-7 this Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Aside about how they usually split    

The Dolphins are coming off of a good performance against the Chiefs, that they barely lost. The Patriots are struggling, bouncing between quarterbacks Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham, with no signs of rebounding this season.

In their first matchup, the Patriots soundly beat the Dolphins 21-11 in Week 1. It was Cam Newton’s first game as a starter for the Patriots, and he dominated the game, putting up 155 passing yards, 75 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins haven’t been dominated by an opposing team that same way all season, as their loss by 10 was their biggest margin of defeat all year.

A look at the Dolphins

The Dolphins offense could be without several key players this upcoming week. Last week, the Dolphins were without three of their primary running backs and lost DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki during the game. Parker is expected to play this week despite the injury. Tight end Mike Gesicki was a surprise participant in this Thursday’s practice. His injury initially looked severe on the field, but he practiced in limited fashion. It’s still unknown whether he will be able to play this week.

Offense

Despite the wide range of injuries across the Dolphins offense, it was one of Tua Tagovailoa’s best games as a professional. He had a career-high 316 yards passing, and three total touchdowns. HIs production was able to keep the Dolphins close against a very octane Chiefs offense. He also kept his mistakes to a minimal, throwing only one interception that may not have been entirely his fault.

Last week fans saw a slightly unleashed version of Tagovailoa. He attempted 17 passes of 10+ yards, and had the fourth highest average air yard per pass attempt among all quarterbacks last week. Tagovailoa has been mostly a game-manager, but last week’s inability to establish a ground game forced him to throw a career-high 48 passes.

As mentioned heavily this season, Tagovailoa is throwing into tight windows more often than any other quarterback in the NFL. That is in large part because of the receivers inability to create separation, and play calls that don’t allow players to get open. Does some of the blame fall on the rookie quarterback? Of course, but when three of your top primary receivers are all in the bottom five of separation (per NFL’s Next Gen Stats,) then that shows an issue that’s out of the quarterbacks control.

Receiver DeVante Parker left last week’s game with a foot injury. Parker’s 6’3″ frame and his ability to come down with impressive contested catches makes him a vital part of this offenses ability to push the ball downfield.

Without Parker and Preston Williams, the Dolphins remaining receiver group consists of Lynn Bowden who is 5’11, Grant who is 5’7”, Perry who is 5’10”, Antonio Callaway who is 5’10”. Lynn Bowden Jr., who had a team-high 82 yards last week, looks impressive in the short / intermediate game, but doesn’t really seem like a viable deep threat. Jakeem Grant, who has a terrific burst of speed capable of getting behind the seconary, doesn’t seem dependable at reeling in these big plays. Receiver Antonio Callaway, who thrived as a deep threat in Cleveland, has been a ghost during his few opportunities on the field. With that being said, Parker missing this game would be huge.

Receiver Isaiah Ford may be primed for a revenge game this week against his former team. Ford is in an interesting position, where he was traded by the Dolphins, to the Patriots — then released by the Patriots and picked up again by the Dolphins. With Ford’s familiarity with the system and reliability, he could be in a position to have a big role. Ford has always thrived in the short / intermediate game, and has been fairly impressive and finding gaps and getting separation, something the offense desperately needs. Despite being traded from the team, Ford is third on the Dolphins in receiving yards per game among wide receivers on the team, showing that no one was truly able to replicate his production consistently.

Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. is picking up lately. He has caught 11 of his 13 targets over the last two games for 123 yards. His effectiveness in the intermediate game, and being able to maneuver through traffic after the catch, Bowden should be primed for another solid outing again.

The Dolphins are in a difficult position yet again at the running back position. Myles Gaskin is still on the COVID list and Salvon Ahmed is questionable. Matt Breida and DeAndre Washington should both play. At this moment, if Ahmed plays, I would assume he leads the team in the carries. If Ahmed can’t play, I imagine Washington will lead the team in obvious run situations, with Breida sprinkled in as the change of pace back.

Defense

Miami’s defense remains the strong side of the team. The Dolphins defense had another strong showing against the Chiefs, Intercepting Mahomes three times, causing a fumble, and holding Edwards-Helaire to only 2 yards per carry.

The Dolphins blitz percentage of 40% is third in the NFL. Their 33% third down conversion rate is the best in the NFL. Their 83.7% passer rating allowed is third lowest in the league. However, their 1685 yards after the catch allowed is sixth most in the NFL. They have allowed the sixth most passes of 20+ yards and the third most passes of 40+ yards, showing that their aggressiveness can also leave them prone to the big play.

Cornerback Xavien Howard continues to pad his case for Defensive Player of the Year after reeling in a magnificent one-handed interception last week. Howard leads the NFL in interceptions with nine,  with five of those coming in consecutive games. There truly is no signs of Howard slowing down, as he continuously makes plays on the ball, and even drops some interceptions that could truly push his total to a monstrous level.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah was among the top defensive players in the NFL in the first half of the season, but has slowed down lately. He has eight sacks on the season, which is 10th in the league, but has not added to the total in the last four games.

Defensive tackle Zach Sieler had another monster game last week, finishing with three tackles for a loss. Sieler plays a large factor in the Dolphins progress when it comes to stopping the run. He is a massive mauler, that either rips through the line or causes so much chaos inside that lanes become congested.

Safety Eric Rowe had his second interception of the season, and will be one of the many players facing his former team this week. Rowe had done a commendable job at stopping tight ends this season, but last week was a different story against Travis Kelce. Rowe was targeted eight times last week and allowed seven completions for 144 yards.

Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts were both limited participants in practice on both Wednesday on Thursday after they missed last week’s game against the Chiefs. Two weeks ago, Van Noy had his best game of the year recording three sacks. Roberts has struggled a bit in pass coverage, but has made up for it with several monster plays in the run-stop. It seems like Roberts has at least one play a game where he either rips through the line for a huge loss, or stuffs a runner at the line of scrimmage.

Linebacker Jerome Baker has been all over the field this season, and there was no better example than last week. Baker had 2.5 sacks on Mahomes, including a massive one for a loss of 30.

Cornerback Byron Jones had his first interception since 2017 last week. He allowed three completions on three targets. He is allowing a 103 passer rating when targeted which is only behind Noah Igbinoghene for cornerbacks on the team.

A look at the Patriots

Despite a modest 6-7 record, many have regarded the Patriots season as a massive failure. Their recent performances sum up their season. They lost to a 3-7 Texans team, then had two solid games, including a dominant 45-0 shutout win against the Chargers, and then got mercilessly destroyed by the Rams the following week 24-3. The Patriots quarterbacks were sacked six times last week.

Cam Newton’s dominant week 1 showcase against the Dolphins appeared to be more of a mirage than anything. In the last three weeks, Newton has struggled mightily. His passing yards for the last three games goes as follows: 84, 69, 119. In those three games, he managed three total touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Newton’s 75-yard, two touchdown rushing performance versus Miami is still his best of the season. He has only managed more than 50 rushing yards in two other games since then. He is still used heavily in the red zone as a rusher, as he has totaled 11 rushing touchdowns this season, compared to only five passing touchdowns.

Only three current starting quarterbacks have a shorter intended air-yards than Cam Newton.

The Patriots have found a surprising amount of success from their running game, which is currently led by Damien Harris. Harris is a powerful, explosive runner capable of breaking off big runs. He has three games this season with over 100 yards rushing, and is averaging five yards-per-carry, which is seventh among running backs, ahead of players like Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt.

Harris is currently listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Jakobi Meyers has been impressive this season, and one of the lone bright spots of the Patriots offense. Considering that only a handful of elite receivers have gotten the best out of cornerback Xavien Howard, it would be a stretch to think that Meyers could come into this game and finish with an impressive statline. Between between Xavien Howard having two catches or Jakobi Meyers having five, is a tough bet.

Despite looking impressive, Meyers does not have a touchdown reception this season.

Wide receiver Damiere Byrd leads the Patriots in receiving yards with 566 yards, and also leads the team in targets and receptions. Byrd had a huge 132-yard performance against the Texans in Week 11. If you remove that game from the equation, he is averaging 43 yards per game.

Newton has been widely unproductive when throwing the ball, but this receiver group is doing him any favors. This is definitely one of the worst receiving units in all of football right now, with Julian Edelman on IR after undergoing a minor knee surgery. Given the strength of the Dolphins secondary, this is a colossal mismatch in Miami’s favor.

Defense

The Patriots defense has been as unpredictable as the rest of the team. As mentioned earlier, they completely shut down the Chargers two weeks ago holding them to zero points. They also shut down a red-hot Cardinals team, holding Hopkins to 55 yards and keeping Kyler Murray from scoring a single touchdown.

But then there are the bad games. They allowed the Jets offense, led by Joe Flacco, to drop 27 on them in Week 9, nearly losing the game. Flacco would finish with 262 yards, 3 touchdowns with 101 of those yards going to Breshad Perriman. They most recently allowed rookie running back Cam Akers of the Rams to run all over them, finishing with a monster 171-yard game.

The Patriots will enter this game with the third most interceptions, behind only the Steelers and Dolphins.

The Patriots 19 sacks on the season is the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Even in their shutout against the Chargers, New England only managed one sack. Despite not having the sacks to show for it, the Patriots are second in quarterback hurries and third in pressures.

The Patriots defense features last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore is allowing a team-low 56.3% completion percentage but has not recorded an interception this season.

Cornerback J.C. Jackson has been playing terrific this season as well, as he has been battling with Dolphins Xavien Howard for the NFL lead in interceptions. He is currently second behind Howard with seven on the season. Jackson has also done a fine job at limiting the receiver across from him, giving up a low 58% completion percentage.

Jackson is currently listed as questionable with a knee injury.

Defensive end Chase Winovich leads the team in sacks with 3.5 on the season. (Reminder, former-Patriot Kyle Van Noy had three in his last game alone.)

Safety Adrian Phillips leads the team in tackles and also in tackles for a loss with seven.

Expectations

It’s a slow game. Both teams in this game rely on their defense. The Dolphins offense has been coming along recently, but with the handful of injuries they’re dealing with, it’s hard to imagine them becoming a full-blown dynamic offense. The Patriots offense has struggled all season, and that should also continue. With that being said, I expect the Dolphins to stick to the short passing game and the Patriots to rely on the run — leading to this being a slow, low scoring affair.

A ton of Damien Harris, if he plays. I expect Harris to have a somewhat solid outing in this game, in large part because I expect him to receive a heavy amount of volume, and for the Patriots defense to be able to keep the pace of the game slow enough for the running game to be involved for much of the game. I think the Dolphins should do a clean job at neutralizing the Patriots offense as a whole, but Harris could have some success.

Neither quarterback has a terrific performance. This ties back into the first point, but I don’t think this game leads to either QB having a great day through the air. Tagovailoa had his first 300-yard performance last week, but I would be pleasantly surprised if he throws over 250 this week. Frankly I would be surprised if Newton even hits 200 passing yards. To me, this game has defense, short passes and the running game written all over it.

Keys to Victory

Stop the run. Cam Newton’s running ability defined their first matchup, so obviously that needs to be addressed for this game. Newton struggles at moving the ball through the air, so containing him should be the first objective. Damien Harris and James White will be heavily involved. This can’t be a game where the Patriots can run at will. Keep Harris under 60 yards rushing, and I think the Dolphins have this game in control.

Be accurate with the football, and don’t throw interceptions. The Patriots haven’t been great at getting hits on the quarterback this season, and if you watch the game against the Chargers, Herbert had enough time to throw. What he didn’t have was open receivers, and that’s with the Chargers having a talented receiver unit. The Dolphins will enter this game already weakened at the position against a tough secondary. Tua should be able to stay clean but making smart decisions and physically getting the ball to his receivers will be the challenge, even in the short game. Last time these teams played, Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions. That can’t happen again.

Have a great game from the offensive line. Now, the Patriots line hasn’t been imposing this season when it comes to getting hits on the quarterback, but they do enough to force bad decisions to be made. On top of that, if the Patriots secondary is on point on Sunday, the Dolphins will need help from the running game — not just to move the ball downfield, but also to create some short yardage opportunities in the pass game. Forcing Tua to make deep passes on third downs in this game, with a potentially depleted receiver group, sounds like a recipe for disaster.