Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins (2-3) will face off against the New York Jets (0-5) at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. The Dolphins are coming off of a dominating win against San Francisco and the Jets look like they barely know how to play football. The Dolphins come into this game as eight point favorites, the most since 2016.

*Cracks knuckles*

 Let’s get into this. 

The Jets are worse than terrible right now. As someone who has watched the Dolphins for years, especially the beginning of last season, I know what bad football looks like. The difference is, last year the Dolphins were beginning a rebuild. They had made it well known that their peak performances would be further down the road in the future. The Jets on the other hand had a coaching staff that needed to be competitive this season. They needed to be good, and instead they are the worst team in the NFL, in large part courtesy of Adam Gase.

A look at the Dolphins

Offense

Total: 20th (364.8)

Passing: 15th (260.6)

Rushing: 21st (104.2)

The Dolphins offense finally looked aggressive last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had his best day of the season, throwing for 350 yards and 3 TDs. He had two plays of 40+ yards. After four weeks of very conservative, vanilla offense, it was a pleasant surprise to see the Dolphins take a few more chances.

As a reminder, Fitzpatrick is one of the streakier quarterbacks in NFL history. It would not be unprecedented for him to follow up a monster performance with a big let down, but the likelihood of that happening against the Jets is not high.

The Dolphins running game has been a point of moderate criticism recently. The team is 21st in rushing yards per game, and is only averaging 3.7 per carry. This has led to some suggesting that recently released running back Le’Veon Bell should be signed by the Dolphins.

It’s important to note, running back Jordan Howard has been terrible this season. His inefficiency greatly skews the team stats. He has 18 carries for 14 yards. If you remove his carries and yards, the team’s yards per carry goes from 3.7 to 4.2. That would bump Miami from the 30th ranked team in yards per carry to the 16th. (If you don’t include his goal line scores, the yards per carry would only jump to 4.1, putting them at 20th in the league.)

Running back Myles Gaskin has been surprisingly good in each game. There hasn’t been a moment this season where I have been disappointed in Gaskin. He is averaging 17 touches per game, with an average of 79 total yards per game. While he hasn’t been an absolute game changer at the position, he’s never been part of the problem.

Matt Breida is also starting to find a nice rhythm. With each week that passes, he shows more and more flashes of the potential home run ability he brings. It’s only a matter of time until he breaks off several huge runs. (Reminder, he plays the Jets this week.)

Wide receiver DeVante Parker still leads the team in receiving yards and targets. Last week he came down with his first touchdown of the season. He has 329 yards so far this year, putting him on pace for 1,053 yards for the season.

Wide receiver Preston Williams finally showed his face again last week. He had a career high 106 yards and a touchdown. He took advantage of a depleted 49ers secondary, and connected with Fitzpatrick on several big plays.

Fitzpatrick said that the growing trust between him and Williams is huge.

“That was a huge play, but it was also a huge play for my confidence in Preston,” Fitzpatrick said. “For him to make the right read and right decision, it goes a long way in building your confidence in guys.”

Tight end Mike Gesicki also bounced back last week with a huge 91-yard game, including a huge 70 yard reception. He is 3rd among tight ends in receiving yards this season.

The offensive line took a hit when they lost left tackle Austin Jackson. The team moved Jesse Davis to left tackle in place of him, and started rookie Robert Hunt at right tackle. The unit wasn’t perfect, but continues to hold their own against tough defensive lines every week. Hunt had some good moments, and also some pretty bad ones to learn from, but that is expected from a rookie in his first game. Overall, I think a game against a weak Jets front should help him adjust to the professional level.

Defense

Total: 18th (379.6)

Passing: 21st (253.6)

Rushing: 20th (126)

The defense finally had a game where they completely overpowered their opponent. Early on, the defense had been the weak point of this team, but they will be looking to crush that narrative once and for all and build off of their solid game against San Francisco last week.

Last week’s game, to me, appeared to be a product of solid pressure on the quarterback. Throughout the game, Garoppolo and Beathard appeared uncomfortable, as the Dolphins were causing disruption frequently.

It may be a little harder this week with defensive tackle Davon Godchaux out after suffering a bicep injury. He will miss several months and it will likely lead to more snaps for Zach Sieler and Raekwon Davis.

Sieler has been a hidden gem for the Dolphins so far, bringing a high energy to this defense and making his presence known. He had several big plays last week, including a sack where he made All-Pro tackle Trent Williams look like a rookie.

Davis on the other hand is a rookie who is still relatively raw. There will more-than-likely be some hiccups, but getting him the snaps early on could be beneficial for his development.

Linebacker Kyle Van Noy was listed as a non-participant in practice earlier this week with a groin injury. Towards the end of the week he was able to practice in limited fashion. It should go without saying that this is concerning. Van Noy has been the best linebacker on the team, as his versatility at attacking the edge while also being able to drop back into coverage is extremely valuable.

Andrew Van Ginkel continues to get more and more playing time. Pro Football Focus currently has him ranked as the 7th edge rusher. S-E-V-E-N-T-H! That’s absolutely crazy. Van Ginkel was impressive last week at stopping the run, and also laid a vicious blind side hit on Garoppolo, which knocked the ball loose.

I’ve been very disappointed with Elandon Roberts performances all season. Last week, he finally had some positive plays when it came to applying pressure on pass plays, but still continues to be a non-factor in stopping the run or in coverage.

The secondary took a beating while cornerback Byron Jones missed time with a groin injury. Rookie Noah Igbinoghene was matched up against Stefon Diggs and David Moore during his absence and got exposed. D.K. Metcalf had a field day on Xavien Howard. The secondary was getting absolutely torched.

Luckily, Jones returned to action last week against San Francisco and the difference was notable. No receiver for the 49ers had more than 44 yards. George Kittle was rendered a non-factor and held to only 4 catches, in large part by good coverage by Eric Rowe. They capitalized on rushed decisions by Garoppolo and came away with two interceptions in the first half, and Howard once again leads the NFL in interceptions with three.

If the Dolphins defense can match the quality of last weeks’ game every single game, they can take a massive leap from one of the worst defenses in the league, to one that is criminally overlooked.

A look at the Jets

Offense

Total: 31st (279.4)

Passing: 32nd (176)

Rushing: 22nd (103.4)

The 2018 Adam Gase-led Miami offense was painfully unoriginal and inefficient. I will never forget people attacking anyone who criticized the atrocity of that offense in the preseason, only for the team to look identical in the regular season.

Now, picture that offense, and somehow make it even worse. That’s the 2020 Adam Gase-led Jets offense.

Quarterback Sam Darnold will miss this weeks’ game with a shoulder injury. Joe Flacco (not elite, never was) will start in his place. Based on how the Jets looked with Darnold, and Flacco’s history against Miami, I’m actually more worried with Darnold not playing.

Flacco against Miami: 6-0 win record, 71 cmp%, 10 TDs, 3 int

The Jets running game will now be carried by legend Frank Gore, La’Michal Perine, and Ty Johnson. Gore is not in his prime by any means, but he is still effective at the age of 37. This season he has 204 yards rushing, with an average of 3.2 yards per carry.

Gore is also from Miami. I’m sure he will be striving to put on more of a show for his hometown.

The Jets receiver group is led by Jamison Crowder, who has 335 yards this season. Crowder is one of the more underrated receivers in the league, and possesses a terrific after the catch ability. Nonetheless, Crowder being the primary target on a team says a lot about the quality of the receiver group.

The Jets acquired receiver Breshad Perriman in the offseason, and he could be making his return this week. Perriman was incredible in the final four games of the 2019 season with Tampa Bay. In the those four games, he had a total of 419 yards and 5 TDs. Perriman is 6’1, and ran a 40-yard dash of 4.25 in 2015. He possesses a unique skill as a deep threat, but the Gase system isn’t known for attacking the field deep.

Rookie Denzel Mims also returned to practice but Gase could not confirm whether he would be playing this week.

The offensive line has also taken a beating with injuries. First-round pick left tackle Mekhi Becton suffered a shoulder injury, and looked visibly uncomfortable in the Week 4 matchup vs Denver. He did not practice yesterday and Gase said his status is also up in the air.

Defense

Total: 25th (394.2)

Passing: 25th (253.6)

Rushing: 22nd (128.6)

Defensively, it’s not much better for the Jets.

Cornerback Pierre Desir is tied for the league high in interceptions with three. He had two in Week 4 via Brett Rypien, including a pick 6. Before that though, he was targeted all night, gave up two touchdowns and was absolutely mossed by Jerry Jeudy. That pretty much sums up the Jets season.

Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is finally starting to look like the player the Jets drafted him to be. He is in both the top 10 in pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate. He possesses a unique ability to shed blockers, and plug up the line of scrimmage. They have been reportedly fielding trade offers for Williams.

Aside from that though, the Jets defense is void of any stars. There is literally no position group on this team that I think is better than what Miami will have lined up against them. You guys know me, I will tell you when the Dolphins have a tough matchup. This isn’t it.

Expectations

The secondary has another good game. Even with Flacco throwing, the Jets receiver group is sub par, and that’s being generous. There will be the typical high dose of bubble screens that Gase likes to use, but assuming the Jets are playing catch up, I think there will be several opportunities for the Dolphins to capitalize on turnovers. I’m expecting at least two interceptions.

Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida both have their best games of the season. The Jets defense has struggled at stop running backs, whether it’s on the ground or in the passing game. Gaskin is heavily involved in both of those. The Jets have also surrendered the fifth most fantasy points per games to running backs. People have been saying that the running game is lacking in Miami, and I think that changes this week. The Jets defense is just a big play waiting to happen.

Frank Gore has a solid game. I’ll lob a nice little positive here for the Jets. Gore will always be reliable, and I think playing in his hometown will give him a little extra this week. Miami’s defense was improved last week, but still gave up nearly 10 yards per carry to Raheem Mostert. Until the Dolphins show that they can shut down the run, I wont bet against an RB who plays against them.

Keys to Victory

Don’t miss tackles. The Jets don’t have receivers that can beat the Dolphins’ corners in a one-on-one. They don’t have a quarterback that can dice them up either. Adam Gase loves screens, and that will be an easy way to get the ball into playmakers’, like Crowder’s hands. Just keep the yards after catch to a minimum and the Jets offense should struggle.

Trust your playmakers. The Jets secondary is a mismatch fest against the Dolphins receivers. Whether it’s DeVante Parker, Preston Williams or Mike Gesicki — these guys are all primed for a good performance if they’re given one-on-one opportunities. Football can be hard, but other times, your guys are just simply way better than theirs. Just get them the ball.

Don’t beat yourself. All the interviews leading up to this game suggest that the Dolphins are taking this matchup seriously despite the Jets’ struggling. Nonetheless, they can’t dismiss any opponent. This can’t be a game with fumbles, muffed punts, senseless penalties or pick-6’s. The Dolphins should be in a good position to win, as long as they aren’t beating themselves.

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