The Dolphins will be presumably led by Tua Tagovailoa, despite him being listed as questionable for this week’s game.
Last week was by far Tua’s best game this season, but was also one of his most efficient of his career. The game featured his third-highest quarterback rating and it was his second-highest amount of passing yards in a game. He did that all without DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Will Fuller – and while dealing with a lingering rib injury.
But it’s also important to note, he also did that against a Jaguars team that has been horrendous all season.
As for the running game – who knows anymore. After Gaskin’s best performance of the season against the Bucs, we saw Gaskin revert to being extremely inefficient, and the Dolphins gave the bulk of the work to Malcolm Brown.
Based on the trends this season, Gaskin will likely have less than 10 carries but just over five targets. Malcolm Brown will have the most carries and be irrelevant as a receiving back. And Salvon Ahmed will be sprinkled in.
Expecting there to be a breakout from any of these guys is a dart throw at this point in the season, but Gaskin’s versatility would still likely give him a slight edge in terms of likelihood.
Jaylen Waddle is having a good season, despite not being used the way many fans would have hoped for.
Some good stats for Waddle:
- He’s 7th in separation in the NFL.
- He’s 11th in receptions among all WRs.
Some bad stats:
- He has the second-lowest yards per catch this season among WRs.
- His 5.4 average depth of target is the second-lowest among WRs this season.
DeVante Parker could be making a return after missing the last two games with an injury.
Parker has displayed terrific contested-catch ability, as he was on pace for over 1,000 yards this season prior to his injury.
Despite many fans frustrate with him, it’s clear if the team wants to move the ball downfield, Parker is a huge factor.
Mike Gesicki has turned it on over the last few games. Over the last four games, he is averaging 75 yards receiving, and has quietly snuck into the top five among tight ends in receiving yards with 342.
While last week he was up against a Jaguars team that has given up the third-most yards to tight end, this week he will be up against a Falcons team that has given up the sixth-fewest.
Preston Williams had a terrific opening drive against Tampa, and him being healthy would be a massive plus for a Dolphins WR unit that’s been ravaged by injuries. If Williams or Parker can’t go, that will likely mean more of Mack Hollins being sparsely used, alongside Kirk Merritt.
The Dolphins offensive line is just not good. It is what it is. We’re at a point this season where we have seen them come out sloppy time and time again – and expecting anything else in this game would be bold.
Jesse Davis will likely be a huge liability, as will Austin Jackson, and even though Liam Eichenberg is a much needed improvement over Jackson, he too still has some rookie hiccups.
Defensively, the team will need Xavien Howard and Byron Jones to return. Both Jones and Howard missed last week with an injury, opening the door to weekly healthy scratch Noah Igbinoghene to be thrust into the fire.
While Igbinoghene didn’t look terrible, he gave up some massive plays to Marvin Jones Jr. His coverage again wasn’t terrible, but Jones also isn’t Julio Jones. The playing time will be useful for Igbinoghene to improve, but if the Dolphins are thinking of getting a victory, Howard or Jones in his place would be obviously miles ahead.
A look at the Falcons
The Falcons, which appeared to be a dumpster fire during the offseason, aren’t actually too bad so far this season.
Offensively, the Falcons are led by Matt Ryan who has 1,332 passing yards (25th), 10 passing touchdowns (12th) and 3 interceptions.
However, Matt Ryan’s intended air yards is the lowest in football, and his completed air yards is the third-lowest. So Ryan has been essentially a checkdown king this year. He didn’t complete a single pass beyond 20 yards down the line of scrimmage until Week 4.
A large reason to why Ryan has been throwing near the line of scrimmage so often is because of the success the team has found with Cordarrelle Patterson as a running back.
Patterson is an electric athlete – and has at least six targets in each of the last four games. He is averaging 59 yards receiving per game this season. On top of that, he has 41 carries this season, with 14 of those coming in their last game against the Jets. He is averaging 4.2 ypc this season.
Mike Davis has also been heavily involved, averaging 5 targets per game, but being used moreso as the teams primary carrying back. He’s averaging over 12 carries per game, and overall has been alright. He’s averaged 4 yards per carry in nearly every game, but his stats are greatly skewed due to an abysmal performance against Washington where he averaged one yard per carry.
The Falcons will have receiver Calvin Ridley back in this game after missing their last game in London with an injury. The Falcons obviously lost an elite talent in Julio Jones, but Calvin Ridley is also very deserving of the elite title.
During training camp, we saw the joint practice matchups of Ridley and Howard. On some plays, Ridley burned Howard, and on others, Howard won.
Howard is a technically sound corner, but isn’t the quickest or most athletic. Based on his regression so far this season, expecting Ridley to have a solid performance in this game isn’t unrealistic – and I would personally expect it.
Tight end Kyle Pitts is coming off a career performance in London against the Jets. He had a career-high 119 yards receiving and his first touchdown. He truly looked unstoppable and showed why many think a tight end of his athletic ability is unheard of.
Was it against the Jets? Yes, but the Dolphins unfortunately are not that much more daunting of an opponent at this point.
The rest of the Falcons receiver unit is barren.
Russell Gage was an intriguing player in the offseason, but after battling injuries has been unable to show much.
The Falcons leading receiver outside of Ridley is Olamide Zaccheaus who only has 89 yards this season, and has caught less than half of his targets.
So essentially – the Dolphins secondary has to stop Ridley and Pitts, and the rest should be fine.
The Falcons defense is one area why many were down on this group heading into the season. On paper, the unit looks severely outmatched – yet they have a lot of players that have been outperforming expectations
Cornerback A.J. Terrell has been great. He’s allowing an impressive 45.8 passer rating when targeted, and has only given up 1 first down catch, per Pro Football Focus.
Opposite of him could be Fabian Moreau. Moreua is by no means regarded as a great corner, but has had some flashes this season. He sustained a neck injury on an impressive tackle for a loss, but was back at practice this week.
While Terrell has been impressive, Moreau has been the corner on this team that has been targeted at will, and giving up the most yards.
Deion Jones has been regarded as one of the best coverage linebackers in the league for years, as his speed made him a staple in the new age of smaller, faster linebackers. However, this season he is not having a good year. He’s been targeted 23 times this season, and has given up 21 completions. His 226 yards allowed in coverage is the most on the Falcons team.
The Falcons are currently 29th in sacks,
Expectations:
Calvin Ridley has a big day.
Tua has another solid performance.
Keys to Victory
Limit Ridley and Pitts. There aren’t too many weapons outside of Ridley and Pitts, neutralize these guys, and force the unproven receivers to beat you.
A decent offensive line performance. Doesn’t have to be spectacular, but this unit is completely capable of derailing an entire performance on any given Sunday. The Falcons front isn’t that good, just look decent.
Get some sort of running game going. Whatever the Dolphins are doing isn’t working. Malcolm Brown shouldn’t be getting the amount of touches he is. There is no threat of a running game right now for Miami – and that makes it far too easy for defenses. They don’t need to come out here and have a Derrick Henry by committee performance, but at least have over 80 rushing yards as a team, without forcing Tua to account for 40 of those.