The Miami Dolphins (1-3) will face off against the San Francisco 49ers (2-2) in San Francisco. The Dolphins are coming off of a surprisingly close loss against the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers, after losing countless key players to injuries, are struggling. They lost last week to the Eagles by a score of 25-20.

A look at the Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have had good moments and bad moments, but after four games, the bad moments have certainly outnumbered the good ones by a wide margin.

Offense:

Total offense: 23rd (347 ypg)

Passing: 20th (240.3)

Rushing: 21st (106.8)

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s overall performance thus far has been underwhelming. He is averaging 277 yards per game with 4 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He also has 2 touchdowns on the ground.

He is coming off of his worst performance so far this season, one that has many fans wondering whether it’s time to start rookie Tua Tagovailoa. To say he cost the team the game last week would not be a stretch, as he threw for two interceptions and had a few others that were dropped by defenders.

Many have begun to wonder whether his arm strength is an issue. The offense has revolved around the short to intermediate game, and Fitzpatrick is the only quarterback who has started every game who doesn’t have a play of 40+ yards.

The receiving game is becoming the DeVante Parker show. He leads the team in receiving with 279 yards and a touchdown, and was featured heavily against the Seahawks.

Isaiah Ford continues to carve out a nice role as a reliable safety valve for Fitzpatrick. He is second on the team in targets with 26, trailing Parker by only 3.

What was once a promising group, has now looked like a major point of weakness for Miami. Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki have combined for 5 catches for 52 yards over the last two games. Williams is last in the NFL in catch percentage, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

Despite being neutralized last week, the running game continues to look solid. Myles Gaskin is still receiving the bulk of the work,  averaging 16.5 touches per game. His involvement in both the run and pass game is still high, as he is averaging 76 total yards per game.

Despite taking a backseat to Gaskin, Matt Breida flashed some promise last week, which was his best game of the season so far. He had several big plays in the pass game, finishing with 3 catches for 39 yards.

No comment on Jordan Howard.

The offensive line continues to put up respectable performances, but could be facing their most difficult challenge yet. Rookie LT Austin Jackson is dealing with a foot injury, and his current status is still unknown.

That means Julien Davenport could be starting in place of him, or Jesse Davis could move over from right tackle to left. The 49ers will be without Nick Bosa, but will still present a tough challenge for this offensive line. (Update: Austin Jackson was placed on Injured Reserve.)

Defense

Total defense: 27th

Passing: 28th

Run: 20th

The defense has put up performances ranging from atrocious to not-so-bad. We have yet to see the defense really dominate their side of the ball.

The secondary continues to get exposed. After several rough outings from rookie Noah Igbinoghene, some have began to wonder if it’s too early to say he was a bust. He was exposed by Stefon Diggs in Week 2, and last week against the Seahawks he was exposed by David Moore. He gave up a massive 57-yard play with 19 seconds left in the half, and also gave up a touchdown.

I said last week in my recap, Xavien Howard is a great ballhawk. He showed that last week when he intercepted a pass in the end zone. But, he has not shown that he is a lock down corner. Aside from the interception, he gave up 6 catches for 133 yards against Seattle. Every pass against his was completed, minus his interception, per PFF.

The secondary could be without star cornerback Byron Jones for another week. He was limited in practice again, after suffering a groin injury in Week 2. (Update: he practiced in full, and is now expected to play.)

The Dolphins linebacker group has been up and down. Through my own observation, I said that they look undersized. There doesn’t appear to be a true traditional linebacker, capable of stopping a runner dead in his tracks, on this team. They are versatile players, who can be solid in coverage, but the tackling issues left a lot to be desired from this group.

The defensive line has been up and down. They looked great against Jacksonville in Week 3, and in Week 4, they had a few good plays. Overall though, there doesn’t appear to be a constant amount of pressure. When the Dolphins sent blitzes last week, Russell Wilson felt it. But when they didn’t, the pressure was almost non-existent.

Emmanuel Ogbah has strung together two back-to-back good games. It will be interesting to watch if he continues this against Trent Williams.

A look at the 49ers

Offense

Total: 11th (390 ypg)

Pass: 12th (262 ypg)

Run: 11th (128 ypg)

We still don’t know who will be quarterback for this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo could be making his return after suffering a high ankle sprain.

Garoppolo in 2020: 67 cmp%, 4 TDs, 0 interceptions

If he is unable to go, it could be C.J. Beathard, who went 14/19 with 138 yards after taking over for Nick Mullens.

Or it could be Mullens, who looked good in Week 3, putting up 343 yards only to completely collapse in Week 4, throwing 2 interceptions with a fumble. The interceptions were all very bad decisions. Very bad. Garoppolo starting in place of Mullens or Beathard is a massive difference.

The 49ers have notoriously been a team that uses a heavy run scheme. They want to chip a way at a team until they break one big, which has led to the rise of former Dolphin Raheem Mostert.

Mostert was terrific last season, and looked just as good this season before suffering a knee injury. This season he has: 148 yards rushing, 110 yards receiving and two total touchdowns.

He has a rush for 80 yards and a reception for 76 yards this season.

If Mostert is unable to go, it will mean more of a role for Jerrick “Jet” McKinnon. McKinnon has also served as a dynamic back, having a touchdown in each of the last 3 games.

The 49ers passing game revolves around George Kittle. He is coming off a massive 183-yard game. He is undeniably one of the best tight ends in the NFL, if not the best.

Miami has done a respectable job against tight ends so far this season, ranking 9th against the position in yards allowed. At the same time, it’s important to note, the tight ends they have faced include: Ryan Izzo, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Kroft and Greg Olsen. None of the players named above are even close to the level Kittle is.

Everyone knew the 49ers needed receivers before the season began, after losing Emmannuel Sanders and Marquise Goodwin. It isn’t their strongest group, but they have some electric weapons.

Kendrick Bourne leads the team in targets. Rookie Brandon Aiyuk has surged recently, racking up 88 yards receiving, 69 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns in the last two games. Deebo Samuel made his first debut of the season last week, where he had 45 total yards.

The 49ers use both Aiyuk and Samuel heavily on sweep plays in the running game. They are quick, and could capitalize on big plays if there is miscommunication or poor tackling.

The offensive line, on paper, is a great one. However, to many’s surprise, it hasn’t been. The struggles for San Francisco at the offensive line has held the team back from returning to being one of the top rushing teams in the league, which was their whole identity.

Trent Williams also got man-handled last week. Williams was brought to SF with the idea that he would be the best at his position, yet Derek Barnett was dominating him, pushing him into the backfield on multiple occasions. It will be interesting to see whether the elite Trent Williams shows, or the one we saw last week.

As mentioned earlier, Ogbah has been doing good, and could take advantage of Williams if he shows up looking defeated again.

Defense

Total: 3rd (294 ypg)

Pass: 2nd (184 ypg)

Run: 15th (110.8)

The 49ers defense were indisputably in the top 3 of the NFL last season. This year, they lost Nick Bosa to an ACL injury. They lost DeForest Buckner in a trade with the Colts. Richard Sherman is looking at a Week 6 return after being placed on IR. They’re still at the top of the league, but they aren’t the absolute force they were before.

Former Pro Bowl LB Kwon Alexander leads the 49ers in tackles. Fred Warner has also been a great player for the team. The front of Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw, despite not showing in the sack column, have been good at disrupting the quarterback.

Without Sherman, the 49ers secondary consists of Jacquiski Tart, Jimmie Ward, Akhello Witherspoon, Emmanuel Moseley and Dontae Johnson. Johnson gave up a huge touchdown play last week. Despite that, overall, this group has been surprisingly solid.

It’s important to note, the 49ers have mainly played teams with weak receiver groups. They have faced the Eagles, Giants and Jets, whose offenses don’t truly strike fear in many teams. When they faced the Arizona Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins had 151 yards receiving and Kyler Murray ran for 91 yards and a TD.

Expectations:

It’s a slower game, with a lot of rushing. The 49ers will want to slow down the game, and their defense’ ability to slow down the Dolphins offense will make it possible. I expect the 49ers to have success on the ground if Mostert plays, and not stray from it.

George Kittle plays well. Despite the Dolphins having had success against their previous tight end matchups, I think that is largely in part because of their talent / role on the team. Kittle will almost always be the focal point, and it’s hard to think of someone on the Dolphins defense who could line up against him without it being a very obvious mismatch.

More DeVante Parker. Parker was great last week, and continues to be the only dependable receiver on the offense. The 49ers have a good defense, as a unit, but in a one-on-one matchup, I give Parker the edge. That should be enough to give him another solid game. I don’t expect the pace to be as fast as last week, so the likelihood of him having over 100 yards aren’t as high. I’ll say I think he has over 70 yards in this one.

Fitzpatrick does enough to keep his job for another week. After all the cries for Tua, I think Fitzpatrick drops a solid performance here. I expect it to be similar stat line to the Jacksonville game, trending more towards efficiency, and not towards a colossal amount of production.

Keys to victory

Neutralize the receivers. I don’t expect the Dolphins, or many teams for that matter, to completely shut down George Kittle. But, if the Dolphins are getting shredded by a receiver group consisting of Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne and Brandon Aiyuk, then there’s no chance. Both Samuel and Aiyuk are playmakers, and could easily break off big plays at any moment. They must be contained.

Force the 49ers to pass. This kind of ties into the first point, but if the 49ers can run the entire game with success, they absolutely will. I personally think that Garoppolo hasn’t proven to be much more than a game manager, so forcing him to beat you is a solid recipe. As for whether it’s Beathard or Mullens… just, please force them to pass.

A receiver not named Parker must step up, and the offense must take chances. Parker and his 10-yard slants were the only thing working for the Dolphins last week, but if the 49ers watched any film, they too recognize this. Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki must get more involved. The Dolphins offense as a whole has not looked aggressive, showing a reluctance to attack deep. I would like to see them take some more chances and give some of these bigger targets some good one-on-one opportunities.