The Miami Dolphins will face off against the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas . The Dolphins are 9-5, on the cusp of a playoff appearance. The Raiders are 7-7, and have been up and down this season.
A look at the Dolphins
The Dolphins offense will once again be led by rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is coming off another solid performance against the Patriots, admittedly it was one that didn’t require the most from him.
Tagovailoa has three rushing touchdowns in the last two games, raising the question — is he the best left-handed scrambling quarterback of all time?
All jokes aside, Tagovailoa’s lack of weapons has forced him to take to the ground. He’s displayed his terrific mobility in the pocket, as well as a sneaky level of elusiveness while scrambling, something that most probably underestimated, given his hip injury.
Last week featured Tagovailoa’s worst mistake so far in his career. He made a poor decision while being hit, lofting a ball into the end zone that was easily intercepted. Tagovailoa acknowledged that mistake during Wednesday’s press conference.
“The first one where I threw the interception was ‘rookie-esque,’ throwing that ball blindly,” Tagovailoa said. “I could’ve just took the sack, we had points there.
Aside from that interception, Tagovailoa has been undeniably secure with the ball. Many have critiqued his reluctance to throw down field. Tagovailoa said it’s just part of the gameplan.
“I believe this game is about taking what the defense gives us,” said Tagovailoa. “If they continue to give us things underneath, I’m going to take it… If there’s a shot and it’s open, that’s when I’m going to take it.”
The running game is coming off their best performance in years. Last week, the Dolphins totaled 250 rushing yards — with a team-high 122 yards on the ground from Salvon Ahmed. Matt Breida was also heavily involved totaling 86 yards.
On Wednesday, the Dolphins activated Myles Gaskin from the COVID-19/Reserve list. Gaskin has been the lead back whenever he was healthy enough to play — but with Ahmed’s success, it seems likely that the two split carries.
As previously mentioned this season, Gaskin and Ahmed split carries in 2018 while teammates at Washington. The two totaled 1,989 yards and 19 rushing TDs.
Gaskin’s patient style of running, and ability to maneuver inside is still impressive. It seems like the perfect compliment to Ahmed’s blazing speed. This truly seems like a threatening one-two punch, something that Dolphins’ fans haven’t been able to say in years.The receiver situation should look better this week. Last week, receivers DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant both missed the game, as well as tight end Mike Gesicki. Parker, Grant and Gesicki were all limited in practice on Wednesday but there is some optimism about their availability.
Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. continues to make a name for himself, and should be featured in the offense regardless of whether the players mentioned above play or not. Bowden looks like an absolute baller, and has been reliable, as well as electric with the ball in his hands.
Over the last three games, Bowden is averaging 6 catches and 53 yards per game.
The Dolphins offense had their best game of the season last week, opening up holes for the rushing attack to have a massive day. They will be up against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom of the NFL in sacks this season, priming them for another opportunity for what should be a solid outing.
Defense
After last week’s win against the Patriots, the Dolphins moved up to the coveted #1 spot in fewest points per game allowed. Their defense is irrefutably one of the best in the league, and it’s shocking to see how underrated they still are.
The Dolphins defense will once again be led by superstar cornerback Xavien Howard. Howard did not have an interception last week, which is surprising given the rate that he’s been getting picks. He did however have yet another takeaway, forcing a clutch fumble that Miami was able to recover.
Defense end Emmanuel Ogbah and defensive tackle Zach Sieler have been stars on the Dolphins’ line but will be in for a tough challenge against a Raiders line that has emerged as one of the tougher in the league. Ogbah will be tasked with trying to sack Carr, who is in the bottom 10 in sacks, and Sieler will tasked with stopping a very heavy run offense. Eric Rowe, who had been tremendous at neutralizing opposing tight ends, will be up against the second-best tight end in football with Darren Waller. Rowe recognizes that it will be a difficult task.
“He’s definitely a different breed,” said Rowe. “He’s not even a TE he’s basically a receiver a BIG receiver, he’s explosive, he can run…it’s definitely going to be a huge challenge this week.”
A look at the Raiders
The Raiders quarterback situation is currently up in the air. Derek Carr sustained a groin injury, allowing Marcus Mariota take over and command the team to a victory.
When it comes to Derek Carr, it seems like we have enough of a sample of him to know what he is. He teeters in that above average to below average area. He rarely looks absolutely atrocious, and aside from his near MVP season in 2016, he hasn’t looked terrific on many occasions either.
This season though, he has looked pretty good for the most part. He has 3,396 yards passing, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His 68% completion percentage is in the top 10 in the league. Carr’s performance was regarded by most as an impressive rebound.
With Mariota things get a bit interesting. Mariota is more of the “boom or bust,” player. Mariota is capable of putting up really, really bad performances, as we saw when the Titans eventually turned over the team to Tannehill. However, Mariota has also had a few instances where had spectacular performances, willing his team to an improbably victory in clutch moments against a tough opponent. Again, those moments have been few and far in between, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.
Last week, Mariota had 226 yards passing with a touchdown and an interception. He also showed off his ability with his legs, picking up 88 yards on 9 carries with a touchdown on the ground.
Carr practiced in full on Wednesday and says he will do whatever he can to play in this game.
The Raiders offense revolves around their running game, which is led by Josh Jacobs. Jacobs, in his second year, is doing pretty well. Last year, many considered Jacobs to have been the better candidate for rookie of the year, but as most of us have come to learn, awards are dominated by quarterbacks.
This season, Jacobs has: 907 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns.
Despite their desire to run the ball, the Raiders have struggled. Jacobs only has two rushes this season of 20+ yards. Somehow, Jacobs was selected to the popularity contest—- Pro Bowl over Jaguars running back James Robinson.
Jacobs has two games this season with over 100 yards rushing, a feat which he accomplished five times last year in his rookie year.
Similar to the matchup versus the Chiefs, the Raiders primary pass-catcher is a tight end. Darren Waller is having a spectacular season, cementing himself as one of the top tight ends in all of football. For this season, it’s indisputable that Waller is the second-best tight end, and it’s not even close.
Waller is 6’6 and possesses a massive frame. He has 4.46 speed, making him closer to a receiver than a traditional tight end. He is the 7th most targeted player in football, tied with Tyreek Hill. In Week 13, had a monster 200 yards on 13 catches with two touchdowns. Last week, he had 9 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown. Waller is putting up WR1 numbers.
On the season, Waller has 967 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Safety Eric Rowe had a rough game against Kelce two weeks ago, and Waller will be just as much of a challenge. Rowe is credited with allowing 144 yards against the Chiefs, a game which Travis Kelce had 136 yards and a touchdown.
The receiver group for the Raiders isn’t threatening at this point in time. The team’s leading receiver is Nelson Agholor, who has 684 yards. Two weeks ago, Agholor had a huge day raking in 100 yards and a touchdown against a tough Indianapolis defense.
Agholor definitely shows flashes as to why the Eagles selected him in the first round, but still seems far from being a true primary receiver.
Most Dolphins fans are aware of who Henry Ruggs III is. Ruggs was teammates with Tagovailoa at Alabama, and the two looked nearly unstoppable. Ruggs displays an incredible 4.27 speed, leading to many comparisons to Tyreek Hill. He was the first receiver selected in this year’s draft, ahead of receivers like Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins and Jerry Jeudy.
Ruggs’ season has been far from the level of success that Higgins and Jefferson have had this year. This season, he has only 414 yards and two touchdowns. It’s important to note, though he may not be consistent — his incredible speed allows to him to capitalize on massive plays. He has the seventh most catches of 40+ yards this season, and his average of 18 yards per reception is third in the NFL.
Receiver Hunter Renfrow has carved out a nice role as a reliable safety net. Renfrow has 598 yards on the season, with 308 of those coming after the catch.
The Raiders offensive line has been impressive all season. Derek Carr has been sacked only 20 times, which is in the bottom half of the league. Rodney Hudson and Kolton Miller are the anchors of this offensive line, which many considering Hudson to be one of the bigger Pro Bowl snubs. There have been seven games this season where Derek Carr has been one time or less. The Raiders offensive line has been in the top 10 in terms of limiting pressure, quarterback hits, and providing time until the pocket collapses. Guard Gabe Jackson has been considered by most to be the most surprising improvement on this Raiders roster.
Raiders defense
The Raiders will enter this game with one of the weaker defensive units in the league. They are currently allowing 30.1 points per game, which is fourth most in the NFL. They are in the bottom eight of passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed, showing that teams generally don’t have trouble moving the ball against the Raiders.
The Raiders are allowing the fifth most yards per carry at 4.6, which is tied with the Dolphins.
They have the second most missed tackles in the NFL with 121.
The Raiders have the third lowest blitz percentage in the NFL, and the second fewest sacks in the league at 16.
It’s hard to say the Raiders defense has a true leader, or best player at the moment.
Raiders linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski is expected to miss the game after being placed on the COVID-19/Reserve list. He is the team’s leading tackler with 81 tackles.
Defensive end Maxx Crosby leads the team with six sacks.
Safety Johnathan Abram, who is second on the team in tackles with 77, is allowing a completion percentage of 75% this season, and 17 yards per reception when targeted. He has a grade of 37 according to PFF, which is terrible, for those who are into those grades.
Cornerback Trayvon Mullen has been getting torched this season. He is credited with allowing 558 yards, 5 touchdowns and a quarterback rating of 95 when targeted.
Expectations
Waller has a good day. Kelce had a field day against Miami two weeks ago, and though the Chiefs and Raiders quarterback situations are worlds apart, I think Waller is extremely talented. The passing offense revolves around him, and if the Raiders want to win this game, he will have to be involved. His combination of size and speed make me lean towards him having the advantage over Eric Rowe. I expect Waller to have 70+ yards in this game.
One of the best all around games from the offense. The Raiders defense is simply not good. They don’t excel in apply pressure… or stopping the run… or stopping the pass game… or preventing points in general. I think the Dolphins run game comes out looking fresh, and the passing game to look fluid. I expect Tua to have over 200 yards passing in this game, with the potential for this to be the Dolphins second highest rushing game of the season.
Ruggs has a big play. Ruggs isn’t the receiver Tyreek Hill is, but Ruggs is still capable of utilizing his speed to make huge plays. Hill had several against Miami, and though I’m not sure Ruggs is a focal point of this game, I expect him to have at least one big play on Saturday. The Dolphins secondary features a ton of great ballhawks, but no one in the secondary is particularly a speedster the way Ruggs is. The Dolphins like to play aggressive, and though it works most of the time, it does leave them prone to the big play. I expect Ruggs to have a play that forces the Dolphins to keep an eye on him.
Keys to Victory
Stop the run, stop the run, stop the run. The Raiders will enter this game with a question mark at the quarterback position. On top of that, their receivers generally are not that threatening as a unit, and the Dolphins secondary should do a good job at containing them. The Raiders gameplan seems obvious already — lean on Josh Jacobs. The Dolphins must contain him in this game. If the Dolphins can keep him under 80 yards rushing, I think they have a good shot of winning this game.
Finish drives with points. I expect the Dolphins to be able to move down the field with relative ease in this game, but they can’t have instances like last week where the drive either stalls in the red zone or there’s an interception in the end zone. Touchdowns should be the priority but the Dolphins need to make sure they aren’t leaving any points on the board off of mistakes.
Prevent the big play. In the expectations, I have that Ruggs has at least one big play — but the Dolphins cant allow the Raiders to have multiple. As mentioned, going deep is Ruggs’ forte, but Nelson Agholor is averaging over 16 yards per reception, which is in the top 10 in the NFL. Darren Waller is just as much of a receiver as he is a tight end, and he too has some breakaway speed that allows him to run for a ton after the catch. The Raiders 10 passes of 40+ yards is fourth in the NFL. The Dolphins can’t allow the Raiders to capitalize big on defensive mistakes.