(Winslow Townson - USA TODAY)

The NFL regular season is back, and with that we have the return of Miami Dolphins football. The Dolphins will be facing the New England Patriots to open the season at 3:25pm central on Sunday September 12 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Before we begin to look at this matchup, it’s important to reflect back to last season, and discuss what has changed since then, and what hasn’t.

The Dolphins were much improved in 2020, finishing 10-6 after the 5-11 season in 2019 that had many accusing them of tanking.

The Dolphins strength was clearly the defense, which led the NFL in turnovers with 29.

The team did lose several starters from that defense, including: Linebacker Kyle Van Noy, who led the team in tackles for a loss. They also lost safety Bobby McCain and defensive end Shaq Lawson.

Offensively, the team did alright — but it would be tough to say the offense was phenomenal. They had a few great games, a few bad games, but mostly they were okay. In Week 8, then rookie Tua Tagovailoa took over for the team. Many would criticize his play after the season, some going as far to say he was already a bust, but it’s important to remember his receivers consisted of guys like Mack Hollins, Jakeem Grant and Lynn Bowden having larger roles than many would say they should.

Like the offense as a whole, Tua had good games, such as against Arizona. He had bad games, such as against the Buffalo Bills — but overall, he was okay, which for a rookie is fine.

A look at the Dolphins

The Dolphins went 1-1 versus New England last season. They lost the season opener, unable to stop Cam Newton on the ground. They then beat New England in Week 15 by a score of 22-12, and frankly they should have won by more.

It was a close game where we saw a fumble-recovery for a touchdown by Xavien Howard get called back after Christian Wilkins narrowly touched the ball while out-of-bounds. We then saw a questionable throw by Tagovailoa that was intercepted in the end zone. We saw an uncharacteristic, missed field goal from Jason Sanders. Lastly, we saw an incredible fake-punt get called back after a penalty.

So again, there were opportunities to rack up points. They adjusted to Cam Newton, applied a ton of pressure, broke off some big plays with the running game, and frankly outplayed New England.  Again, the Dolphins should have won by more.

MIA Offense

The Dolphins offense will be led by Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa threw for 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions last season, despite having a depleted group of receivers. One stat really shows just how inefficient the receivers were at getting open. Per NFL’s Next Gen stats, Tagovailoa had the second-highest “aggressiveness” in the NFL among starting quarterbacks, with 22.8% of his passes going to a receiver who had a defender within one yard. Ryan Fitzpatrick had an even higher aggressiveness, with 21.7% of his passes going to tightly covered receivers. For reference, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes each had just over 11% of their throws into tight windows.

This details just how little separation Dolphins receivers were able to create, as both DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki were in the bottom-three of separation, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

Another useful stat was Tagovailoa’s time to throw, which was in the bottom-quarter of starting quarterbacks. His time-to-throw was 2.55 which shows that he at times didn’t have time to throw, but was also getting rid of the ball quickly.

There were flashes of Tagovailoa taking over games, such as in the game against Arizona, but for the large part his role seemed to be as a game-manager.

In the second preseason game, Tagovailoa looked as confident and composed as he’s ever looked – so it’s possible that a second-year leap is on the horizon.

It’s presumed that the running game will be led by Myles Gaskin, with some touches going to Malcolm Brown in the red zone, and Salvon Ahmed providing depth or being worked in as the receiving back.

Gaskin is primed to have a break out season, as his 97.2 yards from scrimmage per game was in the top-10 among running backs. Coaches and beat writers have been raving about how improved Gaskin looks both physically and mentally.

Brown offers a different skillset, being a more powerful style of runner. That alone was an element the Dolphins needed desperately last season.

The Dolphins will be trotting out with a revamped receiver group, some of them new additions, and some being returns from injury.

Their receiver group currently consists of DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, rookie Jaylen Waddle, Preston Williams, Mack Hollins and Jakeem Grant. Will Fuller V will miss the first game due to a suspension.

Parker had a down year of sorts last year, recording 793 yards in 14 games, but it was still enough to lead the Dolphins in targets and yards. It was a significant drop off after his impressive 2019 outing with 1,202 yards and 9 touchdowns. The offenses’ limited, sometimes restrictive, approach while Tagovailoa was quarterback seemed to be the main reason for this, not necessarily anything on Parker’s end.

Receiver Albert Wilson had a terrific training camp, as several videos of him making big plays were posted by the Dolphins social media team. Wilson was on pace for a breakout season in 2018 before suffering an injury – and his 2019 campaign was solid but nothing to write home about.

After a year away from football after opting out of the 2020 season, Wilson should be both healthy and prepared for a significant role. As mentioned earlier, much of Tagovailoa’s game revolved around short routes and getting the ball out quickly, which could lead to Wilson taking on a bigger role than expected.

Rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle presents a much-needed speed element to this Dolphins team. The Dolphins longest reception in their win against the Patriots was 15 yards. In all, the Dolphins ranked 30^th in receptions of 40+ yards, only recording four on the season. In 2020, while attending Alabama, Waddle recorded a massive 21.1 yards per catch. With Fuller missing this game, the door should be open for Waddle to make a big-splash in his regular season debut.

Miami featured Waddle heavily in the first quarter of their preseason game against Atlanta – where he recorded three catches for 21 yards.

Tight end Mike Gesicki is another candidate for a breakout season. His yards 46.9 yards per game was 6^th among tight ends, and has increased every season since his rookie year.

In his two preseason games, Gesicki recorded a catch of 50 yards and a catch of 30 yards.

The offensive line may be the biggest question mark for Miami in this game. The offensive line was average last year- struggling in some games, and looking decent in others. In the preseason, the offensive line  struggled, unable to create room for the running game and not providing adequate protection for Tagovailoa.

Tackle Austin Jackson struggled during preseason, but was placed on the COVID-19/Reserve list, with tight end Adam Shaheen. It appears that the recently acquired Greg Little will fill in, but rookie Liam Eichenberg could also fill the spot potentially. In that scenario, Jesse Davis could move over to the left tackle position.

MIA Defense

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins led the NFL in turnovers with 29. They allowed the fifth fewest points per game (21.1.) They had the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, blitzing on 40% of drop backs.

However, the Dolphins gave up the most passes of 40+ yards (12.) They allowed the highest yards per catch in the NFL, showing that while they benefitted heavily off of their high blitz percentage and turnover rate, when they got burned, it was bad.

The Dolphins strength was clearly the defense, which led the NFL in turnovers with 29. Among the defensive players, cornerback Xavien Howard stood out, with a league-leading 10 interceptions. He also led the NFL in pass deflections with 20.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah was also electric, recording 9 sacks on the season. Of those eight came in the first nine games.

With the departures of Lawson and Van Noy, players like Andrew Van Ginkel and Elandon Roberts will have elevated roles.

With the majority of the Dolphins defense consisting of the same core players, a lot could hinge on this unproved group of linebackers meeting expectations.

The last Dolphins’ depth chart featured Justin Coleman as the teams’ primary nickel cornerback. Coleman has been playing well in training camp – and appears to have overtaken Nik Needham in this spot.

This isn’t to say that Needham has played poorly. Needham has also been progressing – but reports say he has been practicing as an outside cornerback as well. With Needham playing well, it would be interesting to see how the team incorporates him.

The Dolphins secondary in general should have the upper hand, with two elite cornerbacks on the outside set to cover Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers. Meyers and Agholor are far from being in any elite category, but it’s important to note they each had over 100 yards last year against Miami.

The Dolphins boast a respectable defensive line, consisting of Emmanuel Ogbah, Zach Sieler, Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis, Jaelan Phillips, Adam Butler and John Jenkins. Ogbah led the team in sacks with 9, and also had three forced fumbles. Sieler recorded 11.5 tackles for a loss.

They will be tasked with breaking through a tough Patriots offensive line that Pro Football Focus currently has ranked as the third best offensive line in the NFL.

A look at the Patriots

 

NE Offense

The Patriots will be trotting out with rookie Mac Jones. New England made the surprising decision to release Cam Newton, leaving Jones as the only healthy QB on their roster at the time.

Generally speaking, rookies in their debut’s don’t have the highest expectation. Jones going up against a defense like the Dolphins, who were known for their disguised blitzes and causing a high-level confusion seems like the obvious advantage would lie with Miami.

Jones struggled to produce in his first two preseason games, throwing for only 233 yards on 38 attempts, which would have put him in the bottom quarter of starting quarterbacks last year. However, in the last preseason game against New York, Jones had terrific outing going 10/14 with a touchdown.

Jones is interesting prospect. He does a lot of things okay – but doesn’t jump off the page as an incredible prospect. He’s not the most athletic. His arm strength isn’t great. Skip Bayless went as far to say as “Mac Jones arm strength makes Tom Brady look like Mahomes.” That of course is an exaggeration but there is some truth in there.

(As much as I would like to say that Jones was a product of elite wide receiver talent at Alabama, I will elect not to go that route for obvious reasons.)

The passing game was a massive weak point for the Patriots. They finished 30th in passing yards and 32nd in passing touchdowns. Much like the Dolphins last season, the Patriots were not able to connect on big passing plays, finishing 32nd in the NFL with only three.

The running game was New England’s best option for success against Miami. In their first matchup, Newton rushed for 75 yards and two touchdowns, and in the second, Sony Michel rushed for 74 yards on 10 carries.

The Patriots were without now-starter Damien Harris – who has the potential to have a breakout season. Harris finished last year with 691 yards in only 10 games, with three games with over 100 yards.

Harris is a powerful, north and south runner. He runs angry, and doesn’t shy away from contact. He fights for extra yards and always finds a way to fall forward. It’s easy to see why many fantasy analysts expect him to have a breakout season.

New England will also likely sprinkle in bits of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, who had one of the better preseasons in recent memory. He racked up a combined 219 yards and three touchdowns over three preseason games.

In 2020, the Patriots had to rely on the running game, finishing 3^rd in the NFL in rushing attempts. With that being said, they were also in the top quarter of yards per attempt, rushing touchdowns and finished 4^th in rushing yards.

The Patriots receiving game will consist primarily of Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry and possibly former Dolphin-Malcolm Perry.

The Patriots acquired Nelson Agholor during the offseason, after a respectable bounce-back year with Las Vegas where he recorded 896 and eight touchdowns. Many may remember him from the exciting game against Miami last season where he finished with 155 yards receiving, with a massive 85-yard touchdown catch.

Receiver Jakobi Meyers led the Patriots in receiving in 2020 with 729 yards in 14 games. The former-quarterback had a massive performance in their loss against Miami, recording 111 yards on seven catches.

The Patriots offense line is at-worst solid across the board. Pro Football Focus went as far as to rank them as the third-best offensive line entering the 2021 season, adding that they may be “the best offense line in the league by the end of the season.”

NE Defense

The Patriots defense is still a strong point of the team. They were tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with the Dolphins with 18 on the season.

The Patriots defense will be without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who is out until at least Week 7 with an injury.

Even with Gilmore out, the Patriots will still have an elite talent at the cornerback position in J.C. Jackson. Jackson was second in interceptions last year, trailing only Xavien Howard with nine. Jackson will still be tested, as Gilmore would typically follow an opposing team’s WR1. Jackson said during the offseason that he is up for the challenge, but not having Gilmore as a crutch could still prove to be a huge factor.

Since Gilmore did not play in five games last season, there is a window as to what to expect from Jackson with Gilmore out. In four of the five games without Gilmore, Jackson surrendered 70 yards or more to the opposing receivers.

The absence of Gilmore could also open the door for Jalen Mills to have more of a role. The recently acquired cornerback formerly with the Eagles is listed as the team’s second cornerback. He had a respectable year, allowing only 57.6% of the passes thrown in his direction get completed. He played a mix of both safety and cornerback last season.

The talent that the Patriots possessed in the secondary allowed the defense to send heavy blitzes, leaving corners in man-to-man situations and having relative success. Last year, the Patriots sent fewer blitzes than previous years, (they sent blitzes on 37% of plays in 2019 vs only 24% in 2020), yet they still managed to lead the NFL in quarterback hurries in 2020.

The Patriots ability to hurry the quarterback allowed the defense to use a heavy amount of cover-1, as well as cover-0 on third downs

It’s important to note, the Patriots front has the chance to be more improved after adding Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy in free agency, and having Dont’a Hightower return to the team after opting out of the 2020 season.

Patriots defensive end Chase Winovich led the NFL in hurries last season, with 24. In 2018, while in college at Michigan, he faced Notre Dame and was paired opposite of Liam Eichenberg. Winovich recorded one sack, and a college career-high 3.5 tackles for a loss.

Expectations

Damien Harris has at least 80 yards rushing. The Patriots will probably recognize that the Dolphins present a stout defensive challenge, and try to keep the ball on the ground to prevent their rookie from making mistakes. If the Dolphins defense had a weakness, it was at stopping the run, and after losing several starters on the defense, it’s not sure they will be improved in this department. Whether it’s because he’s efficient, or strictly because of a high volume, I expect a solid outing from Harris.

The offensive line struggles for Miami. The Patriots have some trickery of their own in their ability to find unique ways of applying pressure. With the Dolphins offensive line already struggling, it seems like the Patriots will have some success at disrupting the quarterback.

Mac Jones has several turnovers. It’s a new season – but I don’t expect the Dolphins ability to create turnovers to slow down in this game. This is a daunting task for most quarterbacks – but for a rookie with a below-average group of receivers, this may be too difficult of a task for Jones to overcome. I expect him to be hit often, and be forced to make quick-reads. There’s a high chance Xavien Howard walks out of this game with interception #1 on the season.

Keys to Victory

Stop the run. If Miami can stop the run, the ball is in the hands of rookie Mac Jones in his professional start. That’s a favorable scenario for any NFL team. If Jones is capable of dicing up the Dolphins secondary, one that consists of TWO of the highest-paid cornerbacks in the NFL, then all props to him, and #DolphinsTwitter would be in turmoil. Stop the run, and force New England to pass the ball.

Don’t cost yourself points. Last year, Tagovailoa made one of his worst decisions throwing an interception in the red zone. Jason Sanders missed a field goal. Points were left on the board. In the preseason game against Chicago, Tagovailoa’s worst decision came on an interception into double coverage in the end zone. The Dolphins’ defense should have the advantage, the offense just needs to get the points where they can.

Make plays after the catch. The Patriots have a tough front and get to the quarterback quickly. The Dolphins offensive line consists of a lot of young players, and expecting them to struggle in this game would not be far-fetched. If the Dolphins offense is forced to make quick reads, and dump the ball in to the hands of the play-makers, they will likely be in one-on-one situations with not a lot of help over the top. If Waddle, Wilson, Gaskin and even Jakeem Grant can turn small catches into huge plays, the Dolphins will be able to force New England to keep players back to help in coverage.