The Miami Dolphins defeated the New England Patriots 17-16 on Sunday afternoon, their second win in Foxboro since 2008.

The Dolphins were able to squeeze away with the division win on-the-road all while not playing their best football. This game could’ve easily gone the way of the Patriots – and some may argue that it should have, but at the end of the day, a win is a win. The Miami Dolphins are now 1-0.

The Dolphins came out red hot – slicing through the Patriots defense with absolute ease. They capped off a 80 yard drive with a three-yard touchdown, where Tagovailoa held on to the ball on an option play and was able to jog into the end zone.

After that moment, the offense’s consistency completely dissipated. There were a handful of good moments offensively, where it appeared they found their stride again – but the moments in between were eerily similar to the dysfunctional moments of last season.

The defining moments came in the fourth quarter, with the Dolphins holding on to a one-point lead. Tagovailoa was forced to run from the pocket, throwing a pass deep upfield while off-balance, immediately taking a massive hit afterwards. After a few bobbles from Mike Gesicki and Albert Wilson, it was intercepted by Patriots Jonathan Jones.

The Patriots took over, and promptly began making their way into Miami territory. They reached Miami’s 11-yard line when Damien Harris took a run inside. Cornerback Xavien Howard was able to knock the ball loose, and also recover the fumble, ending a Patriots’ drive that was in range for a chip-in field goal.

After a few plays, including a 13-yard reception by DeVante Parker, quarterback Jacoby Brissett entered the game for an obvious QB sneak on third-and-one. Brissett got the yardage needed easily, and the Dolphins escaped Foxboro with the win.

Phew.

A deeper look.

In all, Tagovailoa had a decent performance at best, but there were some aspects where he was below average.

He would finish the game: 16-for-27, 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 int, 1 rush TD.

Tagovailoa looked good in the same areas we’ve seen him thrive before. His placement on slants to Parker were near perfect, including a 23-yard throw into a tight window, where he appeared to look the defender off in Waddle’s direction in the flats, causing the defender to bite and create an opening.

The pass-blocking for Tua was far from great, forcing him to avoid the pressure on several occasions. In general, seeing his mobility was impressive, as New England boasts one of the more difficult fronts.

Tagovailoa nearly had another interception on a play that mirrored the other – as he was running from pressure, made an ill-advised throw downfield that was dropped by the Patriots defender.

Tagovailoa currently has the highest “air-yards differential,”, or AYD,  per NFL Next Gen Stats. AYD is defined a “calculation by subtracting the passer’s average Intended Air Yards from his average Completed Air Yards. This stat indicates if he is on average attempting deep passes than he on average completes.”

To further this point, Tagovailoa was in the top-6 in average air yards per attempt, meaning he threw the ball further than most quarterbacks this week. However, he had the 10^th lowest completed air yards, meaning that the passes he was completing were short.

Tagovailoa was 3-for-12 on passes that traveled 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Rookie Jaylen Waddle had a strong outing in his NFL regular season debut. He recorded his first professional touchdown on a three-yard touchdown reception, where he dove for the pylon for the score.

He also had a huge 36-yard reception, where he beat his man and made a leaping grab.

We saw in the preseason that Miami wouldn’t shy away from using him early on – but the absence of Will Fuller (suspended) could have bolstered that even more.

Waddle had a big drop on a third-down play in the first half, in which he was wide open for a would-be first down. Aside from that, it was a clean game from Waddle, whose unique athletic ability gives him the chance to have an instant impact. It will be interesting to monitor his usage after the return of Fuller next week.

Receiver DeVante Parker led the team in receiving – and many have been quiet in terms of offering praise to Parker for this game. Parker had 81 yards receiving in this game, and would have had over 100 if J.C. Jackson hadn’t had a great pass breakup on a deep pass over the middle.

Parker came down with an acrobatic, leaping catch near the sideline and was able to get both feet in both. When Parker has good days, he flashes elite WR1 potential. It’s only a matter of whether he can string it together for a full season, like he did in 2019.

A bit surprising was tight end Mike Gesicki’s lack of production. Gesicki finished this game without a catch, unable to reel in either of his two targets.

Receiver Albert Wilson also finished without a reception after being targeted twice. He beat his man Jalen Mills over the top and was in prime position for a potential long touchdown pass. Mills was able to save New England when he laid out, fully outstretched to deflect the pass at the last minute.

Myles Gaskin was the team’s primary running back, as expected. He had a respectable outing, with 9 carries for 49 yards (5.4ypc), and 5 catches for 27 yards. It appears that this is a good estimate for Gaskin’s volume, as Ahmed and Brown were also involved in this game.

Salvon Ahmed had a few moments to shine as a receiving back in this game. He finished with 2 catches for 24 yards, including a nice 18-yard reception where he was able to show his electric yards after the catch ability.

The offensive line struggled in this game. Tackle Jesse Davis was getting beat badly – including on Tagovailoa’s interception where he was on the floor within seconds of the snap.

Tackle Liam Eichenberg had a decent performance outside of a few plays, including one where Patriots Josh Uche slammed Eichenberg into the core of the earth. It was completely disheartening to see at first, but after watching again, it appears Eichenberg tripped on Kindley’s leg while moving backwards.

Guard Solomon Kindley was able to create some nice gaps for the running game early on – but there were a handful of plays where he too was beat badly in pass coverage, or didn’t provide help on screen passes.

Defensively, the game started on a rough note for Miami. Running back Damien Harris took off on a 35-yard run on the first play of the game. Harris was used heavily in this game, finishing the game with 23 carries for 100 yards.

Based on the stats, it would appear that Miami struggled to stop the run —  but most of the damage was limited to the first half. Harris had 11 carries for 72 yards in the first half, an average of 6.5 yards per carry. In the second half, the Dolphins held Harris to 28 yards on 12 carries, an average of 2.3 yards per carry.

Safety Eric Rowe was able to shift the momentum in Miami’s favor when he forced a fumble on rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson.

Rookie safety Jevon Holland later in the game laid down a massive hit on Jonnu Smith that sent the 250-lb tight end flipping. Smith lost the ball but New England was able to recover.

Safety Brandon Jones was able to break through New England’s edge, allowing for Zach Sieler to swallow up the runner for a huge tackle for a loss.

Before Mac Jones’ first NFL touchdown, Dolphins linebacker Elandon Roberts was able to rip through the offense line for a huge sack. After the play, it was determined that Roberts hit was too low on the quarterback. The sack was removed and Roberts was instead penalized for roughing the passer.

This call became controversial, as Roberts was already falling down, leaving Jones’ legs as the only area he would be able to grab.

The drive would continue and Jones would find Agholor. Andrew Van Ginkel would try to hustle back to make the play, and was sent sliding on a quick turn by Agholor.

As a whole, Mac Jones played well for a rookie, helping the Patriots convert 11 of their 16 third-down opportunities. Jones was releasing the ball quick, finishing the week with the 6th quickest average time-to-throw. In all, 181 of his 281 yards came on passes shorter than 10 yards.

Outside of Xavien Howard, the next star defensively was defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah. He would finish the day with 3 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss and a pass deflection – but the stat line won’t show how just how impactful he was. Especially in the second half, Ogbah was able to dominate the man across from him and was a huge reason why Jones was forced to get rid of the ball so quickly. It also appeared that the referees were reluctant to call holding penalties against Ogbah. Overall, an impressive showing that will foreshadow things to come this season.

Linebacker Jerome Baker returned to form as the team’s tackle machine, leading the Dolphins with 12 total tackles. While he didn’t have any flashy plays, or tackles for losses, he was largely responsible for containing James White when Jones would dump it underneath. Jones did connect on a dime over the head of Baker to White, which resulted in a gain of 26 yards.

Takeaways:

The Dolphins “bend, but don’t break” defensive approach is scary – but it works. The Dolphins defense didn’t look spectacular as a whole, but when it mattered, they made plays. They held the Patriots to a 1-for-4 outcome on trips to the red zone, including the late game fumble to seal the game. Last year, I remember thinking the same thing. “There is no way this is sustainable,” yet it was. With that in mind, I will resist the urge to worry about this approach and trust that the Dolphins defense will maintain the high turnover rate.

 

We won’t see the offense take a next step until the offensive line improves. Entering this season, myself and others were optimistic that this young group would progress beyond being some average at-best unit. While they still can – it’s clear that they are not quite there yet. It’s hard to imagine Tua being able to throw for 300 yards consistently, or the Dolphins having another 100 yard-rusher, with the offensive line in it’s current state.

 

Mac Jones had a really good debut. That is both good and bad for Dolphins fans to hear. Of course, it’s never good to hear that the rookie in your division came out of the gates looking good. BUT – I really do think that Jones played well, and not every quarterback the Dolphins face will be as composed as Jones was when he was faced with pressure. I think back to Justin Herbert with the Chargers, and Jared Goff with the Rams last year when I say that. The Dolphins defense is primed for some elite performances this year, but props have to be given for how Jones handled this game.

 

Tua had an average game — not a bad one. Tagovailoa has been a favorite target for the national media to criticize, and having Mac Jones play well would make him another easy target for criticism. However, in a week where Aaron Rodgers looked abysmal, Josh Allen struggled, and even Justin Herbert looked okay at best — directing criticism towards Tagovailoa after a win just seems misguided. Not everyone week is going to be perfect, and that was seen from even the best of quarterbacks from around the league. And the Dolphins did not win in spite of Tua. They won with him still having a significant impact in the team’s success.