The Miami Dolphins (6-3) will face off against the Denver Broncos (3-6) this Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The Dolphins are coming off of their 5th consecutive win, after another respectful win against the Chargers. The Broncos are coming off of a huge 37-12 loss against the Raiders that featured quarterback Drew Lock throwing four interceptions.

A look at the Dolphins

 

Offense

• Total: 29th (318.1 ypg)
• Passing: 26th (219.4 ypg)
• Rushing: 28th (98.7 ypg)

The Dolphins offense is led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The rookie has found a nice rhythm, remaining undefeated as the starter, while also not throwing a single interception.

This season, Tagovailoa has: 63.6% CMP, 519 yards, 5 TDs.

Tagovailoa hasn’t necessarily been the risk-taking, gun-slinger that Herbert and Burrow have been — but that is not a bad thing. Tua has been extremely precise, smart with the ball, and composed when faced with pressure. Those traits don’t always show on the stat sheet, but will show in the win column.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Tua had the highest “aggressivenes” last week, a stat that calculates whether a quarterback throws into tight windows often. In his other games, he was also in the top five. In other words, he is throwing to contested receivers — which may be more indicative of the receivers inability to create separation. DeVante Parker is second to last in separation, with Gesicki at fourth last. Preston Williams isn’t too far behind.

The running game was led by Salvon Ahmed last week, and he was extremely effective for the team. Ahmed had one of the best rushing performances so far this season for Miami, racking up 85 yards on the ground. His electric speed should lead to him receiving the bulk of the work in this one, and potentially a chance to solidify himself as the starter, considering Myles Gaskin could be retuning soon from his knee injury.

Things could be interesting with running back Matt Breida returning from a hamstring injury. He practiced in full on Wednesday, and also offers a dynamic home-run threat with his blazing speed.

If Breida is active for this game, there is a legitimate chance the Dolphins elect to split carries between the two. The Dolphins traded a fifth-round pick for Breida in the offseason, so they may be inclined to get the usage out of him, especially after the Jordan Howard signing proved to be worthless.

The team waived Howard on Tuesday.

The Dolphins traded for running back DeAndre Washington at the trade deadline. Washington could also be added to the mix. Last week, he played on the final drive, totaling two yards on two carries.

The Dolphins receiving group will be led by DeVante Parker. Parker hasn’t been having the breakout season he had last year, combining for 98 yards in the three games Tua has started.

Though his numbers aren’t impressive, Parker said he is unbothered as long as the team is successful.

“I’m not worried about stats,” Parker said. “I just want to win.”

Wide receiver Preston Williams suffered a foot injury in Week 9 and was placed on IR. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the injury may be season-ending. In his place, receiver Jakeem Grant was able to step up and have a productive day.

Last week, Grant led the team in receiving yards with 43 yards and also had a touchdown.

Tagovailoa had plenty of praise for Grant after his performance.

“Jakeem is a phenomenal player,” Tagovailoa said. “He does a lot of ‘brotherhood’ routes — what I mean by that is he runs routes that he knows he isn’t going to get the ball, but it helps get people open.”

Tight end Mike Gesicki had 40 yards last week. Though he is the clear most dynamic receiving tight end on the team, Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen have also been heavily involved.

Last week, fans saw the most involvement from gadget player Malcolm Perry,  who had 27 total yards. Perry showcased a wonderful ability to make players miss, and pick up extra yards. Based off how explosive he looked, I would expect his involvement to increase on a week-to-week basis.

Defense

• Total: 19th (371.9 ypg)
• Passing: 19th (243.8 ypg)
• Rushing: 21st (128.1 ypg)

The Dolphins defense is a force to be reckoned with right now. They are fourth in the NFL in turnovers. They have the fifth-highest blitz percentage at 41.6%. They are fifth in the NFL in points per game allowed. They are solid across the board, with some players making huge strides in this Coach Flores system.

Many have been praising the Dolphins for their “amoeba” defense, one that features a blob of defenders who are bouncing around the line of scrimmage prior to the snap. That movement allows for disguised blitzes to fly in, while also causing a ton of confusion in coverage, as noted by Chargers receiver Keenan Allen last week.

Allen said the team was forced to run the ball to avoid any catastrophic plays.

Sheesh.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah is fourth  in the NFL in sacks with eight. Ogbah is also third in forced fumbles. He also has five pass deflections at the line of scrimmage. He has been an absolute monster this season, and that should continue this week.

Cornerback Xavien Howard is second in the NFL in interceptions with five. He had a momentum-shifting interception last week in the fourth quarter against the Chargers, and has done a terrific job at neutralizing the opponents’ primary receiver.

Howard has been targeted more than any player on the team, but has surrendered a team low completion rate of 49.1%.

Safety Eric Rowe has been a massive factor in the team’s success. Rowe has been tasked with covering opposing tight ends, and has done a tremendous job at neutralizing them. Rowe only has three missed tackles on the season.

Cornerback Nik Needham is also coming off of one of his best games, where he was at times, asked with covering Keenan Allen. Needham also had a huge sack early in the game. While Needham isn’t playing at the same level yet as Xavien Howard or Eric Rowe — he has been trending upward, and continues to impress many.

Linebacker Elandon Roberts is a magnet for huge hits. As mentioned last week, in the open-field and in coverage, Roberts is a massive liability. However, every now and then, he will rip through the offensive line to make a massive tackle for a loss. He leads the Dolphins in tackles for a loss with six.

The Dolphins may be without defensive tackle Christian Wilkins once again. That would mean a larger role for rookie Raekwon Davis, who had his best game as a pro last week, leading the Dolphins in tackles with six. Davis has a massive frame, and all the physical tools one could ever desire at his position — it’s only a matter of whether he can hone in that potential to taking the next step.

A look at the Broncos

Offense

• Total: 26th (334 ypg)
• Passing: 23rd (227.4 ypg)
• Rushing: 19th (106.6 ypg)

The Broncos offense is led by quarterback Drew Lock. Lock was fairly impressive last season as a rookie, leading the Broncos to four wins in his five games. This season, he has fallen from grace, putting up only seven touchdowns this season with 10 interceptions. As a result of the offenses struggle, the team has fallen to a 2-7 record with Lock as the starter, and has many wondering whether the Broncos will look quarterback in this upcoming draft.

Lock has one game with over 300 yards passing this season, and has only two games without an interception. He has three games without a passing touchdown and threw four interceptions last week.

Lock is currently listed as questionable, after sustaining a shoulder injury last week.

If Lock is unable to go, it will likely mean that second-year quarterback Brett Rypien will start in place of him. This would be Rypien second start, the first being in Week 4 on Thursday night against the New York Jets.

Rypien helped the team come out with a victory, throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns. However, it’s not as if he was electric in this game. While he had several nice throws, including a deep 40-yard pass to Tim Patrick, he also threw three interceptions to one of the worst defenses in football, including one pick-six. His 48-yard touchdown to Jerry Jeudy was a ball launched on a prayer, and luckily Jeudy just made a miraculous play and “Moss’d” Pierre Desir. 

Rypien was heavily praised for his performance in this game, which seems extremely overblown by most standards.

The running game is led by the duo of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay.

Melvin Gordon leads the Broncos in rushing yards with 439 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Gordon has been pretty effective throughout his career as a rusher, as well as receiving out of the backfield. His main knock has always been ball security, which continues to hurt him as he has three fumbles this season.

Running back Phillip Lindsay has missed three games this season, but has been the most efficient rusher for the Broncos. This season, he has 312 yards rushing, with 5.5 yards per carry.

The Broncos lost receiver Courtland Sutton early on in the year — and have been forced to rely on receivers Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Daesean Hamilton and K.J. Hamler.

Receiver Jerry Jeudy hasn’t been putting up massive numbers — but the skill is still there. He leads the team in receiving yards with 552 yards and two touchdowns. 

He is already one of the best route-runners in the NFL, and it’s only a matter of time until he is talked about in the same way we discuss Keenan Allen.

In Week 8, he showed off that witty route-running by pointing upfield, causing the defender to bite, only to stop on a dime to record a catch and touchdown.

Jeudy may not be capable of single-handedly dominating a game yet, but he is still capable of capitalizing on small mistakes.

Wide receiver Tim Patrick has been one of the most productive players for the Broncos. He is surprisigly athhletic, utilizing his 6’4” frame to make some impressive catches. This season, he has 444 yards and three touchdowns.

Rookie K.J. Hamler is already impressing many with his performances out of the slot.  He has only played in six games this season, but has a catch of 17+ yards in all but one game. He is challenging to guard, displaying his impressive 4.27 40-time. Nik Needham, who has been great in the slot, cannot afford to sleep on this rookie who has blazing speed.

Tight end Noah Fant is a physical specimen. It’s a mystery where these kind of athletes are found — but Fant is a massive 6’4”, 250lbs, dynamic tight end who ran a 4.5 40-yard dash. He has 367 yards and two touchdowns this season. He leads the Broncos in yards-after-catch this season with 218.

Fant has all the skills to be the next big tight-end of this league, but has dealt with injuries for much of the season. He is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. 

Dolphins Eric Rowe and Jerome Baker have been doing a tremendous job all season at neutralizing the tight end position. Most notably, they held 49ers tight end George Kittle to only 44 yards. The Dolphins have allowed only 343 yards to tight ends this season, which is the 4th best in the NFL.

Defense

• Total: 17th (360 ypg)
• Passing: 14th (231.2 ypg)
• Rushing: 23rd (128.8 ypg)

Head Coach Vic Fangio was praised for his defensive work with the Chicago Bears, making them one of the best in the league. Many have praised his system in Denver, but after a few seasons that were ravaged by injuries’, it’s hard to say they have ever met the original expectations.

Fangio deploys a hybrid 3-4 base, that utilizes match zones. These match zones, or pattern matching, allow a defender to play man within their respective zone. This allows for more adaptability and for the coverage to appear different before the snap than it actually is.

With the NFL trending more toward three receiver sets, Fangio will at times utilize a 2-4-5 defense, with two down linemen (3-techniques), two linebackers rushing off the edge, and the other two either dropping into coverage or coming in on a rare blitz.

The Broncos have sent a blitz on 29% of their plays, which is significantly fewer than the Dolphins. Despite that, they have just as many sacks and nearly twice as many quarterback hurries. So with all the hype that Miami has garnered for their disguised defensive prowess, the Broncos do have a bit of their own. Their problem is that the starting lineup has been torn apart by so many injuries that the scheme isn’t capable of compensating for the lack of skill often enough.

The Broncos defense will be without Von Miller, Jurrell Casey, Jonathan Harris, Shelby Harris, Mark Barron and a handful of others. Not all of those guys are the elite talent that Von Miller is, but were all expected to have roles on this team.

The Broncos strength right now lies in their secondary. Cornerback Bryce Callahan has been playing well for the team, with two interceptions this season. The Broncos elected to nominate him, as well as cornerback A.J. Bouye, for their respective Pro Bowl spots.

Bouye, while with the Jaguars in 2017, was among the top corners in the league. Right now, he is far from it, giving up 172 yards, and a 71% completion percentage in coverage in four games this season. Denver fans have been disappointed in his coverage, and his ability to tackle.

Bouye is currently listed as questionable.

Safety Kareem Jackson, also a former-Texan, is a strong tackler, which is a focus of the Fangio-led defense. The Broncos defense allows for the underneath routes to be completed, with the idea that a secondary won’t give up a big play and their strong tackling can make the stop.

Safety Justin Simmons has also been having a strong season this year, as he is third on the team in tackles, and has the most pass deflections. Simmons has one career touchdown, which came on a pick-six against the Dolphins in 2017.

Edge rusher Bradley Chubb has been great so far for the Broncos off the edge. He has 5.5 sacks on the season, which is the most on the team. It’s no surprise that he leads the team in basically every pass-rushing stat, including quarterback knockdowns, pressures and hurries.

Expectations

The Dolphins defense will have a field day on the Broncos, regardless of who is quarterback. The Broncos quarterbacks have been hurried 44 times this season, which is fourth most in the NFL. The Dolphins have faced tougher offenses, and had solid results nearly every time. The Broncos may be without their QB1, WR1, TE1 and TE2… to me, those are all signs pointing to this one being a defensive showcase for Miami. Plus, the Broncos having the most turnovers in the NFL just makes this the easy takeaway.

The Dolphins are not as effective in the pass game. I think offensively, this could look a lot like Miami’s game against the Rams. Despite the Rams being much more talented on paper, I think the Broncos have a solid secondary with a viable ability to create pressure. That could make this game harder for Miami to move the ball. I would not be surprised if Tua’s first interception comes in this game.

Keys to Victory

Don’t allow the big play. The Dolphins defense was disrupting Kyler Murray with the pressure until he connected on a 75-yard bomb to Christian Kirk. Receivers K.J. Hamler and Jerry Jeudy are shifty receivers, who are both extremely quick. They shouldn’t present too difficult of a challenge, but they are still capable of capitalizing on a moment of lax coverage.

Play secure with the football. As mentioned before, the Broncos may not have the talent across the board, but their defense presents a respectable scheme. Their playmakers lie in the secondary, and even though they may not be having a great season, on an individual level they can each make plays on the ball.

Contain the run. Keenan Allen said the Chargers ran so heavily to avoid any catastrophic plays… well the Broncos offense is the embodiment of a catastrophic play. Drew Lock has made some of the most questionable passes of the season whenever there is even a little bit of pressure. There is a realistic chance the Broncos elect to run the ball heavily, much like the Chargers did. Melvin Gordon hasn’t been terrific, but he is much better than Ballage and the Dolphins haven’t been great at stopping the run. Force Lock or Rypien to pass.