The Miami Dolphins are on the cusp of that coveted playoff appearance, with their last coming in 2016. Their last playoff win came all the way back in the 2000 season.

The Dolphins need one of several situations to occur this weekend:

• A win against Buffalo, or…
• A loss from Baltimore (against Cincinatti), or…
• A loss from Cleveland (against Pittsburgh), or…
• A loss from Indianapolis (against Jacksonville)

Now, the Dolphins only need one of those five scenarios to happen in order to reach the playoffs, but depending on wins from Houston, Jacksonville and Cincinnati is not a good recipe for success. Pittsburgh beating Cleveland seemed favorable, but coach Tomlin announced that the team will rest some starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, leaving that game as far from a guarantee as well.

The Dolphins best shot may come by actually defeating the Bills in Buffalo this weekend. A Bills win would secure Buffalo the #2 seed, but a Bills loss and a Pittsburg win would drop them to the #3 seed. There is some incentive for them to win this game, but it’s unknown whether resting their key players will be viewed as more valuable.

The Miami Dolphins will face off against the Bills this Sunday at Bills stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Dolphins are 10-5, one win away from a complete turnaround of last year’s 5-11 record. The Bills are 12-3, and look as good as ever, coming off a dominating win against the New England Patriots winning 38-9.

A look at the Dolphins

Offense

The Dolphins won last week after a late-game switch at quarterback, turning to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick who put on a heroic performance. Fitzpatrick had 182 yards on three drives, including several huge passes. He entered for Tagovailoa who was struggling to move the ball, totaling a solid completion percentage at 77%, but an underwhelming 4.3 yards per attempt.

After the game, Coach Flores announced that Tagovailoa will remain the team’s starter.

On Thursday morning, it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID, and will be placed on the COVID-19/Reserve List. This news of course means that he is unable to play this week — with next week also appearing in jeopoardy.

The Dolphins activated quarterback Jake Rudock from the practice squad.

Tagovailoa was under harsh criticism after last weeks’s win, totaling on 94 yards passing and displaying a reluuctance to push the ball downfield. Tagovailoa acknowledged this on Wednesday’s press conference.

“Pushing the ball downfield is something I need to do a better job with,” Tagovailoa said.

Earlier in the season, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey said that Tagovailoa needs to do a better job at recognizing that a receiver may appear covered, but will actually be open. This pushes the idea that Tagovailoa is actually at fault for not taking more chances.

Despite that, NFL Next Gen Stats may tell a different story. Tagovailoa is second in the NFL in percentage of throws into tight coverage, at 22.8%, which runs contrary to the idea that he isn’t throwing into tight coverage enough. Fitzpatrick is right behind Tua at 21% of throws into tight coverage, which signals a bigger issue that the team is dealing with.

Whether it’s because of the play calling, or because of the weapons the Dolphins have on offense, creating separation is a massive issue for the team.

For prospective, quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes have the fewest percentage of throws into tight coverage, at under 12% each. This ability to throw to open receivers more often proves to a huge factor in a quarterback’s ability to produce.

Though the separation was an issue that’s outside of Tagovailoa’s hands — the distance he threw the ball last week was undeniably short. In fact, he had the fewest average intended air yards, as well as completed air yards last week. In other words, his passes were not traveling far through the air.

His pass attempts traveled 4.2 yards through the air beyond the line-of-scrimmage, whereas Tom Brady’s traveled 13.9 yards, Ryan Tannehill’s traveled 9.1 yards, and Phillip Rivers’ traveled 10.6 yards.

Tagovailoa’s air yards on completions was even lower, at only 2 yards.

The Dolphins were without their star receiver DeVante Parker last week, who missed the game with a foot injury. With Preston Williams also missing time, Parker’s role as a downfield threat proves to be even more important.

The Bills secondary is one of the more talented in the league, consisting of Pro Bowler Tre’Davious White, and cornerback Josh Norman. It’s unknown whether the Bills will elect to rest some of their stars, but having Parker here will be crucial.

Parker has found more success against the Bills than any other team, as his 590 yards and 4 touchdowns against them since 2015 is the most for him against any team.

Parker’s production is considerably lower, aside from his setbacks with injuries. He is averaging 52 yards per game this season, whereas last year he averaged 75 yards. Last year Parker finished with 21 catches of 20+ yards and 7 catches of 40+ yards. This season, he has only 8 catches of 20+ yards and not a single catch of 40+ yards.

Tight end Mike Gesicki will make his second appearance since suffering what appeared to be a serious shoulder injury. Gesicki had a tremendous grab last week, stretching out to make a terrific grab. Though he may not be 100%, that catch showcased why he is so valuable to this receiving group.

In the Dolphins Week 2 matchup against the Bills, Gesicki had a career-high 130 yards with a touchdown. The Bills have allowed 901 yards to tight ends this season, which is fourth most in the NFL, priming Gesicki for another solid outing.

Lynn Bowden Jr. had a down game last week, coming down with only 2 catches for 8 yards. This week, he could be primed for a bigger performance, seeing as how the Bills have the fourth-most missed tackles, and most of the receptions they allow are close. Bowden is already hard to tackle, so he should have another good performance.

Running back Myles Gaskin was deserving of last week’s player of the game, coming down with the huge 5_-yard touchdown reception that kept the Dolphins chances alive. He would finish the game with 169 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

Running back Salvon Ahmed had some great performances as the team’s lead back, but after Gaskin’s return, it’s hard to imagine Ahmed dominating the carries again. Ahmed had six carries for last week for only 2 yards. Though Gaskin was impressive, their differences in styles and his ability to provide a spark should prevent Ahmed from becoming completely irrelvant.

Defense

The Dolphins defense has been a force all season. They are first in total points allowed per game, giving up the fewest at only 18.8 points per game. Their 27 takeaways is the most in football. Their 40 sacks are 9th in the NFL. The team is allowing a completion percentage of 62.9%, which is the fifth best in the league.

Despite their success, the Dolphins defense is coming off a performance that had some ups and downs.

Cornerback Byron Jones had a rough outing, allowing 126 yards receiving, including a big ___-yard touchdown to Raiders Nelson Agholor. Some would claim after the game that Agholor pushed off Jones, and should have been flagged for offensive pass interference.

On the Raiders following drive, Carr went to Agholor again, this time Jones was flagged for defensive pass interference. The penalty moved the ball 49 yards and nearly cost the Dolphins the game. Many would again argue that Jones was unjustly penalized.

Opposite of Jones, cornerback Xavien Howard was in his usual, elite-level form. Howard held Henry Ruggs III to zero catches. He nearly had an interception on a deflection and also broke up a pass in the end zone.  Howard was only credited with surrendering 10 yards.

Last time Miami faced Buffalo, Stefon Diggs was covered by Byron Jones. After Jones left with an injury, Miami elected to put Noah Igbinoghene on Diggs, who torched him all game.

It would be shocking if Howard isn’t shadowing Diggs in this game, if Diggs does indeed play.

Safety Eric Rowe had been solid all season, but the two best tight ends in football got the best of him. After surrendering a huge day to Kelce in their matchup against Kansas City, tight end Darren Waller had an even bigger day against Rowe. Rowe is credited with allowing completions on 7-of-8 pass attempts, for 120 yards last week.

The Bills don’t have an elite level tight end, as Dawson Knox only has 259 yards receiving. Rowe should be able to have a decent bounce back game.

The Dolphins defense will be up against a fairly tough matchup against the Bills offensive line. Josh Allen has been blitzed more than any quarterback in football, yet has been pressured only on 20% of his dropbacks, which is 23rd in the NFL. He has been sacked 25 times, which is 15th in the league, and has an average pocket time of 2.6 seconds — which is third in the NFL.

Emmanuel Ogbah leads the team in sacks with nine. Though he began the season hot, he only has one sack in his last six games.

Linebacker Jerome Baker has been on a tear recently, leading the team in tackles nearly every week — and has been getting to the quarterback at will. Through the last three games, Baker has 27 tackles, 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble.

A look at the Bills

Offense

“The Bills offense starts with Josh Allen,” said linebacker Jerome Baker.

If Allen indeed plays, that’s exactly how it goes. Allen has snuck into the MVP conversation, but will likely still trail players like Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Nonetheless, the leap Allen made from his rookie year to his second year was massive, but somehow the leap he made from his second year to his third may be even more impressive.

Allen has a cannon of an arm and really has polished it a ton this year. Accuracy was Allen’s biggest issue, but that seems to be a non-factor more and more with him as time passes. This season, Allen has 4,320 yards passing, which is third in the NFL. His 34 touchdown passes are fifth in the NFL. His completion percentage is seventh, among qualifying quarterbacks and he has only thrown nine interceptions. He has the fifth highest quarterback rating.

Allen, who was known mostly as a dual-threat quarterback, has slowed down a bit in the running game. Physically, he can still do the same things he did before, but he seems more inclined to stay in the pocket than before. This year he has 418 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. In his two previous years he combined for over 1,100 yards rushing with 17 touchdowns rushing.

If the Bills elect to rest Allen, Matt Barkley will likely start for the Bills. Barkley has 2,535 yards passing but double the amount of interceptions over touchdowns: with 21 interceptions to only 10 touchdowns.

Receiver Stefon Diggs has catapulted into the elite receiver category this season. The talent was always there, as he was always regarded as one of the premier route-runners in football. After leaving Minnesota and becoming the undisputed WR1 in Buffalo, Diggs made a massive leap.

Diggs leads the NFL in receptions with 120 and receiving yards with 1,459. He is fifth in catches of 20+ yards, second in catches of 40+ yards, and third in first-down receptions.

Diggs has 130 yards or more in the last three games. Last week, Diggs had three touchdowns.

Receiver Cole Beasley is having a terrific season as well, as he has a career high 967 yards this season.

After a leg injury last week, Beasley is considered week-to-week. He did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, and the Bills apparently began looking at free agent receiver Kenny Stills to potentially add for depth.

With receiver John Brown dealing currently on the COVID list, rookie Gabriel Davis is having a bigger role than expected. Davis has 492 yards and 6 touchdowns.

It’s uknown whether Brown will be able to make it back in time for this game. Brown, who has been dealing with nagging leg injuries this season, has been able to shred the Dolphins these past couple of years. His last three games reads as following: 82 yards and 1 touchdown, 137 yards and 2 touchdowns, 83 yards and 1 touchdown.

If the Bills elect to bench Diggs and Beasley, it would mean a larger role for Isaiah McKenzie and potentially Andre Roberts.

The rushing game hasn’t been as good as expected for the Bills running back. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have split the carries, with both looking solid, but neither being truly jaw-dropping. Singletary leads the team in rushing yards with 680 yards and an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Singletary has not had a game with more than 86 yards this season.

Zack Moss has 473 yards rushing and four touchdowns. Though Moss missed some time, he’s been regarded as underwhelming given that many expected him to be able to secure the starting role from Singletary.

Defense

The Bills defense is in the top quarter in blitz percentage, sending a blitz on 37% of plays. The have applied pressure on 22% percentage of plays, which is in the bottom half of the league, showing that even though the blitz rate is high, the overall success of them is not that frequent.

Their 37 sacks are 13th in the NFL.

The Bills 123 missed tackles are fourth-most in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference.

The Bills defense is allowing an average depth of target of 6.9 yards, fewest in the NFL. This shows an ability for the Bills to keep players in front of them, and force short passes.

The Bills two losses came against high-octane offenses, led by Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. Despite both quarterbacks being MVP-caliber, the story of the game was the ability to run on the Bills. The Bills surrendered 247 yards rushing to the Chiefs, and 217 yards rushing to the Cardinals. In their near losses to the Rams and Patriots, LA had 167 yards rushing and NE had 188 yards.

The Bills defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, fifth most in the NFL. Opposing teams seem to thrive when they are able to keep games close and keep the running game a focal point — which is a challenge given the high-powered nature of the Bills offensive attack.

Cornerback Tre’Davious White is the star of the Bills defense, being nominated to his third Pro Bowl this season. White, Howard and Gilmore are usually heavily debated among fans who is the best. This season, Howard is very clearly the leader of the pack — while White is having respectable season, but not the absolute blanket he has been in previous years.

White is allowing a completion percentage of 56.9% when targeted and a rating of 79.9. Josh Norman is allowing a completion percentage of 69.9%.

Cornerback Levi Wallace was a liability last time these two teams faced off, surrendering 119 yards, and 1 touchdown on 9 completions. He was paired against Mike Gesicki for much of the game, and Gesicki was able to take advantage.

Linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds are healthy for this game, as both of them missed the Week 2 matchup versus Miami. Their absence in that game was extremely notable, as Edmunds is now second on the team in tackles, and Milano fourth on the team in sacks, despite only playing in nine games.

Tremaine Edmunds was nominated to the Pro Bowl this season. Despite that, he is second on the team in tackles with 110 and has a PFF grade of 45, which is not good.

Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is a mauler in the trenches, and leads the team in tackles for a loss with 8.5. Despite only having three sacks, his 17 pressures are second-most on the team, showing his value to the team’s defensive line.

Expectations:

Tagovailoa has a bounce back game. As daunting as the Bills defense may look, there are a lot of ways this could work in Tua’s favor. The Bills secondary seems fine with allowing the short passes to be completed — which is what Tua’s game currently revolves around. They also have a ton of missed tackles, meaning that even the shorter passes have the potential to turn into bigger gains. I like the potential of Tagovailoa using Bowden Jr. as a safety net, and him being able to produce after the catch. The Bills also have big names in the secondary that they could see as too valuable to risk — if some of them sit, Parker and Gesicki could also have big games.

The Bills starters don’t play the whole game, if at all. Coach Sean McDermott said yesterday when asked if the starters will play, that he will do what’s best for the team and the players. Doing what’s best for the team could still mean playing for the second seed, but doing what’s best for the players sounds a bit like he’s taking their health and rest into account.

DeVante Parker has a good game. If the Bills rest certain starters, Tre’Davious White has a good chance to be one of them. Even if he doesn’t, Parker has a surprisingly impressive stat line against the Bills throughout his career. With all the pressure on Tagovailoa to throw down the field, Parker could be the primary beneficiary of him having to take deeper throws.

Keys to Victory

Make key tackles. It’s fair to assume (if the starters play,) that Diggs will now be covered by Xavien Howard. Assuming Howard can limit Diggs production, that means Isaiah McKenzie, Gabriel Davis and Devin Singletary out of the backfield could have expanded roles. With McKenzie and Singletary in particular, they are capable of making guys miss and turning small catches into big gains. While I don’t expect anyone outside of Diggs to be testing the Dolphins deep, they could turn small completions into big gains if not accounted for.

Establish the running game. The Dolphins receiver unit is already a weak one, and the Bills secondary is pretty good, so making the defense respect the run will be especially crucial here. Chipping away at this Bills defense may be the recipe for success in this game, which will not only fall on the offense, but also on the defenses ability to slow down Buffalo.