The Dolphins (1-6) will face off against the Bills 4-2 this Sunday in Buffalo.
The Dolphins are on a six game losing streak, and pressure is beginning to overflow. The season that seemed promising beforehand, has all but unraveled, with the Dolphins virtually having no chance at a playoff appearance this year.
The Dolphins will be led offensively by Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately for Tagovailoa, this game has a feel of being a “prove it game,” which is a shame because this is only Tagovailoa’s 14th start.
Tagovailoa has looked fine by most standards of measuring a young quarterback, but the premise of Deshaun Watson looming in the background has but an insurmountable amount of pressure on Tua.
While he played two of his best games of his career the last two weeks, they were against some of the worst defenses in football.
He also did have his fair share of critical mistakes.
The unfortunate reality is, if the Dolphins are truly all in on Deshaun Watson, Tagovailoa’s margin for error against this extremely talented defense will be virtually non-existent.
While Tua was injured on the first drive the last time these two teams met up, the time prior that he faced the Bills was arguably one of his worst performances.
He posted a career high 361yards, but also threw a career high 58 passes. He would finish with an 62.5 passer rating, throwing three interceptions and truly looked lost against this Buffalo defense.
It’s also important to note, his receivers in that game were: DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden Jr., Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford and Malcolm Perry. Brutal.
On top of that, Parker dropped a pass that turned into an interception.
Over all, this will be a difficult challenge for Tagovailoa. He is one of the easier guys to root for in all of sports, being the epitome of a class-act and professional — so this game also has the potential to be one of the most defining moments of his career.
The running game will be led by Myles Gaskin. For the first time, theres a degree of confidence when saying that because Malcolm Brown was placed on IR with a quad injury.
With Brown out for the majority of the game, Gaskin handled the bulk of the workload and it ended up being the best rushing game for the team this season.
The volume is in line to be there for Gaskin, who will likely have 10+ carries and at least five targets, but it will only be a matter of whether he produces with the opportunity.
The receiving game will feature a lot of the same.
Jaylen Waddle is still receiving a heavy dose of volume, recording a career-high 83 yards last week.
His depth of target is still among the worst in the league, as he has the third-shortest among WRs trailing only Rondale Moore and Jarvis Landry.
It will be tough to change that this week, as the Bills have given up the fewest passes of 20+ yards and the second-fewest passes of 40+ yards against them.
After a monster performance against Jacksonville, tight end Mike Gesicki was able to keep things flowing. Gesicki recorded 85 yards a touchdown last week against Atlanta.
Gesicki is starting to get things rolling – and he is fourth in the NFL among tight ends in receiving yards, trailing only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts.
The Bills were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year at covering tight ends, but appeared to right that wrong as they’ve basically neutralized the position entirely this year. Gesicki only managed 41 yards the last time these teams faced off this season.
DeVante Parker has looked great against the Bills throughout his career, but is still battling a hamstring injury that may keep him out. He said on Thursday that he felt good, but was hesitant to say whether he would be able to play or not.
Outside of Jaylen Waddle last week, the rest of the Dolphins wide receivers combined for: four catches, for 28 yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa was forced to spread the ball amongst a wide variety of weapons, but unfortunately no receiver has been able to step up.
(Allen Robinson at the trade deadline?)
The Dolphins offensive line, plagued by Austin Jackson, will likely continue to underwhelm in this game. The last time these two teams faced off, the severity of this group being bad came into the spotlight, as Tua was knocked out of the game with an injury after being sacked, and hit untouched on two separate plays.
Jacoby Brissett entered and didn’t fair any better.
In total, the Bills finished with a total of six sacks.
The Dolphins leading rusher in that game was Myles Gaskin with 25 yards.
Now while the offensive line has improved on back-to-back weeks, those games were against the Falcons and the Jags. This will be a true reality check for this Dolphins unit.
Defense
The Dolphins defense is far from elite right now.
The team thrived last year by creating turnovers, despite giving up big plays here and there. It was part of the balance of it – you get the huge turnover, and you give up the big play. Risk vs reward.
However, this season, the risk of the big play has swallowed the defense entirely.
No defense has given up more passing plays of 20+ yards than the Dolphins. Only the Washington Football Team has given up more air yards than the Dolphins. Only the Chargers have given up more rushing plays of 20+ yards than the Dolphins.
The turnovers have still been there to some degree, as the Dolphins are 10th in the NFL in takeaways, but when the defense is swiss cheese for 95% of the game, what good is a turnover at that point.
Cornerback Xavien Howard had a huge turnover last week, ripping the ball away from Calvin Ridley.
However, teams have not shy’d away from targeting Howard. Howard has been targeted 43 times this season, the most on the team. (MORE) And while his 51% completion percentage allowed is good, he is averaging over 15 yards per reception, which is second most on the team.
While he deserves recognition for single-handedly saving the game against NE, and he has flashed some turnover potential, it would be a stretch to say Howard has been an elite lockdown corner this season.
With many playoff contenders needing a cornerback, Howard could see his name mentioned near the trade deadline, but based off his performance, the Dolphins wouldn’t get the haul they could’ve gotten in the offseason.
Diggs will likely be tasked with covering Stefon Diggs who Moss’d him last time these two teams faced off, and has been finding a nice groove as of late. Advantage -> Diggs.
The linebacker group from the Dolphins has been underwhelming. It’s admirable to see Baker fly across the field, but it’s clear he’s being tasked with too much. He, like the rest of the linebackers, has been exposed in coverage time and time again.
One would hope that if a group is struggling in coverage, that at least means they’re thriving as run-stoppers, but that is also not the case.
Week in and week out this unit looks severely undersized, and even some of the least imposing RBs are able to rake up extra yards and they struggle to get him on the ground.
Emmanuel Ogbah has been a one-man show in my eyes when it comes to creating pressure. He is constantly there, and is one reason why the Dolphins lead the league in QB knockdowns. It’s unfortunate because he’s so close, but doesn’t have much to show for his performance in the stat column. Nonetheless, if you watch him play, you’re aware that his energy has been great this year.
Unfortunately as a unit, the group has been far too inconstitent this season. There were moments against Atlanta, and Tampa where Matt Ryan and Tom Brady were able to become statues, without a single worry in the world, and connect on deep passes. It happened far too often.
The Bills will be led offensively by Josh Allen. After a slow start to start the season, Allen has remembered who he was in a big way. Allen has racked up 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns in three of his last four games, and in the other one, they beat the Texans 40-0 and he didn’t even have to throw.
In seven games against Miami throughout his career, he’s averaging 247 passing yards per game, 54 rushing yards, and has amassed 22 total touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Not a good history against Allen.
The running game for the Bills will probably operate in the same manner it did the first time these teams matched up.
Devin Singletary, who leads the Bills in rushing yards, will likely lead the team in carries. He is averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry, and flashed his big play potential on the second play of the game for Buffalo.
Miami has struggled in the pass to stop Singletary, even those he’s not regarded as a premier back. He’s still slippery and evasive.
However, this isn’t to say that Zack Moss will be useless in this game. We saw last time these teams faced off that Moss imply outpowered the Dolphins front. He scored two touchdowns, and both of them looked like Miami should have had the upper hand – regardless of that, Moss found ways to willpower into the end zone.
Stefon Diggs began the season with a modest start, and has been looking great as of late. He’s still an elite talent, and he’s been treated as such. For that same reason, he’s not putting up the massive numbers he was last year. He’s currently 22nd in the NFL in receiving yards, a stark drop off from where he was last year.
Despite being targeted nearly 20 fewer times, Emmanuel Sanders has put up arguably better numbers than Diggs this season. They have nearly the same amount of yards, while Sanders has two more touchdowns on the year. On top of that, Sanders has eight catches of 20+ yards, while Diggs only has four.
Shifty slot receiver Cole Beasley continues to look impressive, as he has throughout his career. Nearly half of his yards have came after the catch, and he’s capable of exploding for a huge game on any given Sunday. Beasley had games with 36, 16 and 5 yards, but also had games with 98 and 88, so it’s hit or miss.
Luckily for Miami, tight end Dawson Knox who was at the top of the league in most tight end stats will not be playing this game after suffering an injury that will cause him to miss several weeks.
The weapons don’t end their for Buffalo as Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Mckenzie also bring a massive big-play potential on any given moment.
A little reminder: Gabriel Davis vs Miami (career): 3 receptions, 113 yards, 2 TDs.
The Bills defense has been a force to be reckoned with this season. This is how they stack up so far:
- No team has given up fewer total yards or yards per play.
- Lead the NFL in takeaways
- Fewest passing yards allowed
- Second in interceptions
- 4th fewest rushing yards allowed
- 4th in pressures
- 3rd most QB hurries
- Shortest depth of target allowed in the NFL
- Fewest yards to RBs allowed
- This season, the Bills have recorded 10 interceptions, and only five passing touchdowns against them.
Derrick henry had 143 yards rushing, next highest rusher against the Bills was Patrick Mahomes who had 61.
Now, if you’re looking for a silver-lining, it’s in the fact that the Bills haven’t faced the best teams. They went up against a noodle arm that is attached to Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinecke and Davis Mills.
However, it must be said, they did a decent job against the Titans, and completely neutralized Kansas City and Mahomes.
Safety Jordan Poyer has the lowest passer rating when targeted among safeties.
Safety Micah Hyde leads the team in interceptions with three.
Both are among the top-five rated safeties, according to PFF.
Linebacker Matt Milano leads the team in tackles for a loss, and has the highest win-rate among linebackers in the NFL.
Both Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson have an impressive completion rate in the low 50s, and have not given up a touchdown pass in coverage.
The one cornerback who has been somewhat targetable is Levi Wallace, whose surrendered two touchdowns and a passer rating of 89 when targeted.
Again, this isn’t to drool over the Bills – just to emphasize, that this has been one of the tougher defenses in football up until this point.
Expectations:
Tua is in no position to thrive. This game has the making of a savior moment for Tagovailoa. The Watson rumors are bigger than ever, the trade deadline is near, and here you are faced with the monster team – none other than the divisional rival. I think Tua will be playing his heart out, and I think he has the skills to compete, but I think the offensive line, the play calling, the lack of a running game will be too much for him to overcome in this game.
The team begins to unravel. The team was in two close matchups, albeit against bad teams, but still came away with heartbreaking losses. The Bills should be in control of this game, and if things get ugly sooner rather than later, this may be the game where Flores seemingly loses the team.
Big plays for Buffalo. Like the game against Tampa, there are a ton of weapons here that must be accounted for around the clock. Even if Xavien Howard has a good day containing Diggs, someone must be covering Sanders, someone must be covering Beasley, someone must be covering Davis and Mckenzie, that’s not to mention stopping the running backs. There’s just too many guys here, and given Miami’s inability to limit big plays, it seems inevitable.
Keys to Victory
The defense must step up, and in a big way. The offense will have a challenge unlike any other against the Bills, and the defense can’t afford to play horrible again this week. Not only must the Dolphins defense do a decent job at holding them, but they may also have to do a little bit more and help the offense get some good field position. It’s a pretty steep request, but that’s what may have to be done to win this game.
The offensive line… bless their souls… just keep Tua alive. This isn’t as much a key to the victory for this game, as much as it would be a victory if Tua leaves here in tact. We saw last time these teams faced off that they had no answer for the pressure Buffalo was sending. Two defensive backs laid hits on Tua, then Brissett entered and got slaughtered himself. The Dolphins don’t win this game unless Tua is the quarterback. If Tua is getting hit nonstop, or is forced to leave the game, chalk it up as a blowout.
Big plays after the catch. We’re at the point where the Dolphins fundamentally aren’t willing to throw deep passes in one-on-one situations down the field. It just seems like that is a core aspect of the offense, and expecting it to change out of nowhere seems unrealistic. On top of that, the Bills defense keeps everything in front of them. With that in mind, the play makers will have to do an impeccable job at capitalizing on those plays after the catch. The Bills probably won’t respect Miami’s deep ball, and recognize that the passes will be going short, it will be up to the playmakers to make things happen.