The Miami Dolphins (8-4) will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)  on Sunday in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins are coming off of a routine win against the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Chiefs, as expected, look nearly unstoppable. As an added bonus to what should be an exciting game, Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will be commentating the game.

A look at the Dolphins

Offense

Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from his thumb injury last week, and had one of his best performances of his young career. Tagovailoa threw for a career-high 296 yards and 1 touchdown. He still has not thrown an interception this season.

Tagovailoa and the offense came out flat in the first half, but the second half gave a glimpse of the offense that fans have been craving to see. Tagovailoa took several deep chances, giving his receivers the opportunity to make a one-on-one catch. Though it didn’t work every time, the fact that the offense appeared to open up was definitely a positive.

Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes had a ton of praise for the rookie quarterback.

“Obviously, he has the talent,” Mahomes said. “He can make all the throws. He can roll to his right, to his left, throw off-balance and can run and make things happen, too. But that veteran mental mindset that he has, I think that’s truly special at this time in his career.” 

Last week featured a career-high day for Mike Gesicki, who had nine catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. Gesicki, who has disappeared many weeks, only to have a massive impact in the following week, is coming along strong recently with 121 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two games.

Receiver DeVante Parker was ejected last week for getting in a scuffle near the Bengals sideline. Parker is still last in the league in separation, but is near the top in contested catches this season.

Receiver Jakeem Grant had several drops last week, including a massive play that would have at least gone for 50+ yards. Grant displayed his elusiveness in the open-field, with two “tap passes,” that went for over 20 yards — but his inability to capitalize on route plays downfield make it hard to see him as dependable as a receiver.

Receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. had his best game as a pro last week, snagging several balls in the short to intermediate game, and being able to gain extra yards after the catch.

Running back Myles Gaskin was placed on the COVID-19/Reserve list. With Matt Breida and Salvon Ahmed also out, that leaves DeAndre Washington, Patrick Laird and recently signed Elijah McGuire in the backfield. Washington will likely be primed for a big game as he will probably lead the team in carries, against a Chiefs team that traded him at the trade deadline earlier this season. Washington displayed some solid burst against the Jets, totaling 49 yards on 13 carries.

The Dolphins offensive line looked as good as they have all season last week. It must be said the Bengals were near bottom of the league in applying pressure, so it was expected that they would look good. They will be up against a Chiefs defense that is 25th in the NFL in sacks.

Defense

The Dolphins defense has been a force all season. They are allowing an average of 17.7 points per game, which is the second-fewest in the NFL behind only the Steelers. They will be tasked with stopping a Chiefs offense which is averaging 30.8 points per game, which is second in the NFL behind only the Packers.

The Dolphins blitz percentage of 41.4% is second highest in the NFL.  They have also allowed the third-lowest quarterback rating in the NFL.

Cornerback Xavien Howard is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. His eight interceptions is the most in the NFL, and he managed to snag another last week, despite being ejected early in the game. Howard has surrendered a team-low completion percentage of 46.8 percent when being targeted.

He will be tasked with a difficult challenge this week, as he will likely be covering Tyreek Hill at times, as well as Sammy Watkins. Howard has been a shutdown corner for the majority of the season, but has given up several big plays this season, namely in the game against Seattle to D.K. Metcalf. Hill’s 4.2 speed will make this a challenge for Howard, who was clocked at 4.59 at the combine.

Slot corner Nik Needham is coming off back to back games with an interception, and has done a tremendous job at shutting down some of the best slot receivers in all of football. Needham has not surrendered a touchdown this season, and only has one missed tackle on the year.

Needham will likely be tasked with covering Hill in this game as well, which could present a tough challenge. Leading into this season, Needham mentioned that he was forced to shed weight, and even now, he isn’t regarded as one of the quicker corners. It’s likely that the Dolphins will need to double cover Hill in instances where Needham is lined up against him.

Safety Eric Rowe has been tremendous this season, allowing 5.7 yards per target this season, which is best on the team. He has been one of the main defenders of the tight end position, which the Dolphins have held to 471 yards, which is the sixth best in the NFL.

In Week 5 against the 49ers, the Dolphins held the All-Pro tight end George Kittle to only 44 yards receiving.

Kelce is playing out of his mind this season, and will present a difficult matchup for Rowe. It will be interesting to see whether the Dolphins elect to send fewer blitzes in order to keep defenders back to help with Kelce and Hill.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah leads the team in sacks with 8, and will be going up against his former team. Ogbah has not recorded a sack in the last three games but is still in the top 10 in the NFL.

Kyle Van Noy is coming off his best game of the season, where he recorded a huge three sacks, and six tackles for a loss. Van Noy has the most total pressures by a non-defensive lineman, per Pro Football Focus.

The Dolphins front will be up against a Chiefs team that has only been sacked 16 times this season, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Linebacker Jerome Baker leads the team in tackles with 81.

A look at the Chiefs

In 2018, while de facto defensive coordinator of the Patriots, Brian Flores helped New England beat the Chiefs by a score of 43-40 in the playoffs.  The Patriots stuck to the ground game, and dominated the time of possession. They finished the game with 38 carries for 173 yards on the ground, and held the ball for 44  minutes of the game.

It was a game that featured Eric Rowe, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts — all as members of the Patriots in that game.

The Chiefs have only lost one game this season, but also had a near loss in Week 11. What’s interesting is that their loss and near loss came against the same team: the Las Vegas Raiders. In the loss, the Raiders were able to complete passes of 72, 59, and 46 yards. Las Vegas would finish with 35 carries for 144 yards and two touchdowns.

On Sunday Night Football, the Colts also defeated the Chiefs by winning the time of possession game, leading on Marlon Mack who had 29 carries for 132 yards rushing and also getting four sacks on Mahomes.

Offense

The Chiefs have the best offense in all of football .They are averaging 427.6 yards per game, which is the most in the NFL. The next closest is the Packers with 396.6 yards. They have the best quarterback in football, playing at an MVP level. They have arguably the most productive receiver in football in Tyreek Hill, who also one of the top-3 fastest players. They have the best tight end in football. They also have speedsters like Mecole Hardman, who isn’t too far behind Hill in the fastest player in the league conversation.

The Chiefs offense is led by Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is beginning to run away with the MVP race, putting up a ridiculous 3,815 yards, 31 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Mahomes only has four games this season with under 300 yards passing.

Mahomes has the lowest “aggressiveness,” in the entire NFL with 10.8%. Aggressiveness is a stat that calculates how often a quarterback throws into tight windows. In other words, Mahomes is not throwing into tight windows often. Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in aggressiveness with 26.5% of his throws going to a receiver who has a defender within one yard.

Receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce have carried the bulk of the receiving work for the team. They have combined for 2,139 yards and 22 touchdowns this season.

Travis Kelce is having another historic season, but far the best tight end in all of football this season. His 1,114 yards are second in the NFL, behind only D.K. Metcalf. His 82 catches are fifth in the NFL. His 18 catches of 20+ yards are second most in the NFL. His 61 catches for first downs is the most in all of football. He has five games with over 100 yards receiving and only two games with 50 or less yards.

In other words, Kelce has surpassed being just the best tight end in football, and is actually in the conversation for one of the more productive offensive players in the league.

Tyreek Hill is also having a monster season. His 13 touchdowns are the most in the NFL. His 1,079 yards are third in the NFL. His 17 catches of 20+ yards are third in the NFL. His four catches of 40+ yards are third in the NFL.

Hill also has 90 yards rushing on 11 carries.

In Week 12, Hill had 269 yards receiving and three touchdowns. In the first quarter alone, he had 203 yards and two touchdowns.

The last time the Chiefs played the Dolphins in 2018, Hill had 109 yards and Kelce had 49 yards and a touchdown.

I don’t know what else to say aside from that this duo is by far the best in the league.

Receiver Mecole Hardman offers a similar skillset to Tyreek Hill. Hardman has burners and can easily break off a monster play, as he is averaging a team-high 15 yards per reception. On the season he has 449 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Chiefs receiver group also consist of Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson. Watkins has missed five games this season due to an injury, but has held a respectable role in the previous few weeks. Watkins had a massive 198-yard, 3 touchdown game last season against Jacksonville. Robinson has shined in games that Hill missed due to injury, including a huge 172-yard, 2 touchdown performance last year against the Raiders.

In other words, Mahomes loves throwing to Hill and Kelce, but can still produce when throwing to the deep receiver group that the Chiefs have.

The Chiefs running game will be led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire and LeVeon Bell.

Edwards-Helaire has been solid as a rusher, totaling 692 yards and an average of 4.6 yards per carry. He hasn’t been the dominate, versatile workhorse back were accustomed to seeing in the Andy Reid system, as he has only 234 yards receiving and 1 touchdown.

LeVeon Bell was signed by the Chiefs before their Week 7 matchup versus the Broncos. It was a move that garnered a ton of hype across the NFL. However, he hasn’t really been able to capitalize on it. Bell has only mustered 141 rushing yards in the six games with the Chiefs. Bell is still a great back, but it doesn’t appear like he will take over this role any time soon, and will just be used to provide depth and a change of pace for the team.

The Chiefs offense is surprisingly in the bottom half of red zone trips that ended with a touchdown. Many blamed Edwards-Helaire for not being a productive runner in the red zone. CEH has only scored on 12.5% of his rushes from within the five-yard-line.

Defense

The Chiefs defense has a few stars that are able to carry this defense to solid performances. Despite that, at best the entire unit has looked average. The Chiefs defense has allowed 4.8 yards per carry against the run, which is the third-worst in the NFL. Last week against the Broncos, Melvin Gordon ran all over the Chiefs, finishing with 131 yards, and 8.7 yards per carry.

Safety Tyrann Mathieu leads the team in interceptions with five. Last week against the Broncos, Mathieu had two interceptions. Mathieu is one of more well-rounded safety in the leagues, and is capable of changing the outcome of a game.

Defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the team in sacks with 5.5. Defense end Frank Clark isn’t far behind with four, and leads the team in tackles for a loss with six.

Safety Daniel Sorensen and linebacker Anthony Hitchens are tied for the team lead in tackles with 73.

Expectations:

Tyreek Hill has a huge day. I’ve been proud of Needham’s progress so far, and I imagine Howard could be matched up against Hill at times too — but you can’t teach speed. There is very little room for mistakes against Hill. If the team sends a heavy dose of blitzes, leaving someone in a man coverage situation with no help over the top is a recipe for disaster against Hill. If the Dolphins elect to keep players back and withhold the blitzes, it will allow time for hill to create separation and get open on broken plays.

Another good game from Tagovailoa. The team can take two routes in their approach against the Chiefs: try to slow down the game or just say “Screw it, let’s let it rip. Whatever happens, happens.” They could try starting the game with the first approach, but I don’t expect the Dolphins to be able to rely on the run game to have success that way. I imagine by the half of this game, the Dolphins could elect to just air it out, and I think Tagovailoa will look impressive doing so.

Keys to Victory

[Disclaimer: These are just a combination of what has worked against the Chiefs, and things I could see making this tough feat possible. If I knew the perfect recipe for defeating this powerhouse of a team — I would be on the sideline with a headset on and not behind a microphone. Take these with a grain of salt.]

Have the best rushing game of the season, and win the time of possession battle. The Chiefs offense will get theirs to some extent. The Dolphins should be able to slow them down to some degree — but expecting them to shut them out is unrealistic. The Dolphins will have to slow this game down to an abysmal level — keeping the Chiefs offense off the field and preventing them from getting in a rhythm.

Must capitalize on big plays. Last week, we saw Grant drop a massive play. Aside from that, there wasn’t much happening down the field. The Raiders had three passes of 40+ yards against the Chiefs in their first matchup. Their secondary can be beat, and with Miami’s inability to run the ball effectively, they must make some big plays to compensate.

The best game from the secondary. If it was as simple as just neutralizing Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the game wouldn’t be as daunting as it is. Mahomes is capable of putting up huge games while relying on Watkins, Robinson and Hardman. On top of that, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has looked impressive, and LeVeon Bell is still regarded by many to be an elite running back. There are a ton of weapons across the board here, and each player, primarily in the secondary, will have to be playing lights out.

This is a game where it isn’t as simple as – oh if the team loses, I should be mad and if they win I should be happy. The Dolphins, if they come out here and look competitive, and keep the game close — whether it’s by the offense matching the Chiefs , or the defense shutting down the best offense in football. There can be some things to be happy about even if the Dolphins don’t end up with the win.