The Miami Dolphins (5-3) will face off with the Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) this Sunday in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins are coming off of their fourth consecutive win, a thrilling offensive showcase against the Arizona Cardinals. The Chargers, in typical fashion, have had their fair share of bad luck, and are coming off two brutal losses. They have a point differential of -11 this season, which is on par with the Raiders and Bears, who both have 5 wins.

A look at the Dolphins 

Offense:

• Total: 28th
• Passing: 23rd
• Rushing: 28th

The Dolphins offense is led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The rookie silenced many critics with his 248-yard, 2 touchdown performance against the Cardinals. He displayed terrific decision-making, ball security and composure, leading the Dolphins to the three-point victory.

Tagovailoa also scrambled for 35 yards, including a 17-yard run for a first down. Though not typically known to be much of a running quarterback, his mobility was impressive considering one year ago he suffered a devastating dislocated hip injury.

On the season, Tua has 350 yards passing and three touchdowns.

The Dolphins were without Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida last week, leading to Jordan Howard receiving the bulk of the work. They will once again be without Gaskin, but Breida is still listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jordan Howard had another uninspiring game last week, averaging a mere 2 yards per carry.

Running back Salvon Ahmed led the Dolphins in rushing last week, displaying a terrific burst of speed. After the game, Coach Flores said he was impressed by Ahmed.

“I thought he ran well,” Flores said. “He’s got some juice. Pretty good for his first time out. There is a protection play that stands out to me that I thought could have been better. First time out I thought he played well. He took advantage of the opportunity.”

Ahmed having role this week seems guaranteed.

Running back DeAndre Washington, who was acquired by the Dolphins at the trade deadline, could also be making his debut for the team. Washington, who had most of his success with the Oakland Raiders, has been regarded as a change-of-pace back for most of his career.

In 2018, he had several games as the lead back, and did fairly well in those opportunities. If I had to compare his style to any player, I would say he’s a less dynamic version of Maurice Jones-Drew.

If Washington is active for this game, I would expect him to take over Jordan Howard’s role — potentially signaling the end of Howard’s usage for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins most productive receiver last week was Preston Williams, who had 60 yards and a touchdown in the first half. Williams left the game with a foot injury, and was later placed on IR.

Mack Hollins filled in the role of Williams, catching a 11-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter. Hollins is 6’4, and the heaviest receiver on the team at 141lbs. His massive stature could lead to him having another week of heavy usage — given that the Dolphins other options at receiver are: Jakeem Grant, Malcolm Perry, and Lynn Bowden, who have a combined average height of 5’9″.

Williams’ injury has many fans clamoring for the promotion of former-Browns receiver Antonio Callaway. Callaway would instantly become one of the most talented receivers on the team, and could provide an instant impact. He has 675 yards and five touchdowns in 20 career games.

He was suspended the first eight weeks for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

Receiver DeVante Parker was the team’s leading receiver last week. This season, he has taken on a role of working in the intermediate game.  His big-play ability has not been displayed this season, as he only has only five catches of 20+ yards, and a long of 28 yards.

Tight end Mike Gesicki has not taken off in the way that many fans would hope. Though he had several clutch plays last week, he only totaled 42 yards. That gives him 50 yards over the last three games. With Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen also playing well, it’s fair to wonder whether Gesicki will take that leap to becoming an elite tight end this season. For now, that scenario seems doubtful.

The offensive line had a decent game again last week. More importantly, it featured the return of tackle Austin Jackson, who has been playing well and showing promise. He had a few moments against Arizona where he showed rust, including giving up his first sack of the season, but getting him back is a massive addition for the team moving forward.

In the second half, guard Solomon Kindley was benched in favor of Jesse Davis. It’s unknown whether this change was permanent and will be implemented again this week. Kindley was regarded as a mauler all season, and him being taken off the field was a shock for many.

Defense

• Total: 22nd
• Passing: 21st
• Rushing: 26th

The Cardinals presented a difficult challenge for Miami last week. Kyler Murray had nearly 300 yards passing, and 109 yards rushing. He was dicing up the defense for most of the game — but at the same time, it’s tough to say the Dolphins defense was bad.

On the first drive, Emmanuel Ogbah stripped Murray, allowing Shaq Lawson to recover for the touchdown. That’s the second straight week with a defensive score for Miami.

Christian Kirk had a few big plays on Byron Jones, including a 73-yard touchdown, but on the other side, Xavien Howard held DeAndre Hopkins to 30 yards.

Kyler Murray had 109 yards rushing, but the Dolphins held Chase Edmonds to under three yards per carry.

So while there was some clear downsides to last week’s performance, its not enough to suggest that the Dolphins defense is somehow bad now.

The Dolphins could potentially be without linebacker Kyle Van Noy and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. The team placed both of them on the COVID-19/RESERVE list on Tuesday. This would be the second game Van Noy missed, the other being Week 6 against the New York Jets.

If Van Noy is unable to play, that would presumably mean more of a role for Kamu Grugier-Hill and Samuel Eguavoen. Against the Jets, Grugier-Hill suffered a concussion, allowing Eguavoen to fill most of Van Noy’s role.

Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins would also be a massive loss for the team, as he has been coming on strong in the most recent weeks.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah has emerged as arguably the best player this season for the Dolphins. His seven sacks are fourth in the NFL. He has two strip sacks leading to a score in back to back games. There are no reasons to expect his production to slow down in this game.

Cornerback Xavien Howard is second in the NFL in interceptions with four, and has been shadowing the opponents WR1 for most of the season. This week will present another tough challenge as he faces Keenan Allen, who very well might be the most impressive route-runner in the NFL.

Cornerback Byron Jones will be looking to bounce back after last week’s performance, and will likely be tasked with covering big 6’4″ receiver Mike Williams. Williams is capable of making phenomenal contested catches, but is rendered a non-factor in most games.

Chargers

Offense

• Total: 2nd
• Passing: 5th
• Rushing: 8th

The Chargers offense is lead by quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert has caught the attention of many for his electric arm, large frame and impressive mobility. Herbert can get plenty of zip on the ball without much effort, leading to some very impressive highlight reel plays.

Despite only having played in 7 games, Herbert is currently 8th in the NFL in touchdown passes. His 306.6 passing yards per game is currently third in the NFL, behind only Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson.

The Chargers running game will once again be without Austin Ekeler, who suffered a severe hamstring injury in Week 4. The team has turned to Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley and most recently former Dolphins l̶e̶g̶e̶n̶d̶ Kalen Ballage.

Running back Justin Jackson left last week in the first quarter, allowing Ballage to have one of his better games in years. He finished the game with 69 yards rushing and a touchdown.

If Jackson is unable to play, Ballage will likely be the lead back again for the Chargers.

UPDATE: Justin Jackson has been downgraded to OUT for this Sunday’s game.

The Chargers receiving group is led by Keenan Allen. As mentioned earlier, Allen is an elite level route-runner. He is 2nd in the NFL in receptions and 11th receiving yards. Last week, he had 103 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders.

Like Parker, Allen has been thriving in the intermediate game, with also a heavy involvement in the short passing game. Allen only has four catches beyond 20 yards this season.

Receiver Mike Williams has an abundance of highlight reel plays — but in between those, are a whole bunch of nothing. Williams had over 1,000 yards last season, and in 2018 he had 10 touchdowns. Analysts were enamored by his potential as a red zone threat, but even with Herbert reigniting the offense, he hasn’t been able to capitalize on the hype consistently. However, he has over 80 yards in three of the last four games, showing that he might end that narrative once and for all.

The fantasy website Rotoballer believes Mike Williams has a “favorable matchup,” this week against Miami.

Defense

• Total: 14th
• Passing: 16th
• Rushing: 15th

The Chargers defense has been the weak point of the team. They are 27th in the NFL in interceptions.  They are in 28th the league in forced fumbles. They simply cannot cause any turnovers. On top of that, they are 29th in yards per carry allowed. Overall just a very vulnerable defensive unit.

The Chargers and their Gus Bradley led defense rely on limited blitzes and zone coverage. The Chargers have blitzed on 13.6% of plays, which is by far the fewest in the NFL.

Defensive end Joey Bosa, the star of the defense, is dealing with a concussion. He practiced in limited fashion on Thursday, and is still questionable for Sunday’s game. He has been the highest rated player on the Chargers defense, per Pro Football Focus. He has 4.5 sacks on the season.

UPDATE: Joey Bosa has been downgraded to OUT for this Sunday’s game.

Cornerback Casey Hayward had a little run for the past couple years where he was among the top cornerbacks in the NFL. This year, the 31-year-old is showing some serious regression. He has been targeted heavily, and has already given up more touchdowns this season than he has in the two previous seasons, per Michael Peterson of SB Nations’ Bolts from the Blue. Last week, he was burned by Raiders receiver Nelson Agholor.

The linebacker group for Los Angeles is pretty good on paper. Rookie Kenneth Murray will return to his starting role after being briefly benched last week in favor of Denzel Perryman. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said his benching was due to communication issues, and the Chargers are now wondering if they put “too much on his plate too fast.”

Expectations:

This is a close game. It’s easy to look at the Chargers record and think they are a terrible team, and this should be an easy win for Miami. But the Chargers have been narrowly losing most of their games, with several coming on last-minute plays. Herbert is capable of running a fast-paced offense, and putting up huge numbers. Even if the Dolphins get out to a lead early, I expect Herbert to keep the Chargers close.

The Dolphins defense looks better than last week. Last week, the Dolphins were having success with their cover-0, heavy blitz game plan, until Murray took advantage of the lack of safety over the top. Herbert is mobile, but not near as mobile as Murray. If the Dolphins apply the same pressure that they have been over the last several weeks, it should warrant some success again.

DeVante Parker has a big day. After a few weeks now that featured either respectable secondaries or a game flow that didn’t require much passing — this game will feature neither of those. The Chargers defense can’t contain above average receivers. They gave up huge days to Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Emmannuel Sanders and Jerry Jeudy. Unless the Dolphins are up massive, I expect Parker to be fairly productive. Plus, no team has given up more passing plays of 40+ yards than the Chargers.

Keys to Victory

Play mistake-free football. Playing a sound game against the Chargers is an easy-way to get a huge advantage, given the Chargers’ tendency to beat themselves. Senseless turnovers, bad penalties and bad play-calling will make this game unnecessarily tough for the Dolphins.

Protect Tua. Though Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram haven’t been playing lights out, like in previous years, they are still a strong enough duo that are capable of disrupting an entire game. This game will need some solid play at the edges of the offensive line in order to produce an offensive performance like last week.

Get the ground game going. It’s shocking how well the Dolphins are playing with a relatively weak rushing game. Though it may not be necessary for them to have a rushing game to win the game, it sure would help tremendously. I think Washington and Ahmed are capable of stringing together a solid game, and having Breida would be a massive plus — just please, no more Jordan Howard.