The Miami Dolphins (1-0) will face off against the Buffalo Bills (0-1) at 1pm ET, on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The Dolphins currently lead the AFC East, squeezing out a narrow victory over the New England Patriots. The Bills, who last year reached the AFC Championship, came out flat, losing to the Pittsburg Steelers last week 23-16.
The Bills have dominated the Dolphins recently, beating Miami with ease on both occasions last year. The Bills week 2 victory showcased their air attack, where they picked on rookie Noah Igbinoghene primarily. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs would finish with 8 catches for 153 yards.
The Week 17 game was hardly different, as the Bills walked away with a 56-26 victory. The Bills pass attack was once again the highlight, as Allen and second-string QB Matt Barkley combined for 388 passing yards.
The game also served as harsh reality check for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He entered that game with only 2 interceptions on the season, but would add three picks in that game alone.
A look at the Dolphins
MIA Offense
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will once again command the offense. Last week was a subpar game from Tagovailoa, but was far from as bad as many suggest. Tagovailoa thrived in the short game, connecting on 13 of his 15 passes that were 10 yards or shorter. Tagovailoa was more aggressive in terms of making throws downfield, but did not have success doing so. He would finish 3-for-12 on passes that traveled 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
The main factor holding Tagovailoa back from a better performance was the team’s offensive line – which struggled in this game. He was sacked twice, and his mistakes came on plays where he was forced to leave the pocket and throw on the run.
Despite a seemingly tough outing in terms of being pressured, Pro Football Reference has stated that Tagovailoa was only hurried once last week. The site also has Tagovailoa being pressured on 17.2% of his dropbacks – which would be in the bottom quarter of all quarterbacks in the NFL.
The running game will be led by Myles Gaskin. Gaskin had a modest performance recording 49 yards rushing and an additional 27 through the air. Gaskin’s versatility gives him the opportunity to succeed on any given Sunday – but he will be up against a tough Bills defense this week. The Bills have allowed the fewest to running backs this season – allowing only 49 total yards last week to the position (45 yards rushing, 4 yards receiving.)
The Dolphins receiver group will feature the return of Will Fuller V after being suspended for Week 1. Fuller, as previously mentioned, is a dynamic deep-threat that the Dolphins have needed. Fuller recorded four receptions of 40+ yards last season, playing on only 11 games.
The Dolphins as an entire team had the same number of catches of 40+ yards last season.
Receiver DeVante Parker is coming off of a respectable outing, recording 81 yards on four catches. Parker has had either a touchdown or 100+ yards receiving in his last four games vs the Bills.
Rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle had a significant role in his regular season debut. Waddle recorded his first touchdown on a three-yard played that featured him reversing after going in a pre-snap motion, utilizing his speed as he dove toward the pylon for the score.
He also recorded a 30-yard leaping reception where he appeared to beat his man. It’s possible that this could have been an even bigger play if the pass had been thrown a little more in front of him.
Tight end Mike Gesicki was a nonfactor last week, as he was unable to come down with either of his two targets.
Gesicki’s career high 130-yard game came last season in the Dolphins matchup vs the Bills.
Outside of Gaskin, Waddle and Parker – only Salvon Ahmed and Durham Smythe had a catch.
The Dolphins offensive line left room for improvement after a rough first week. The unit struggled to string together a series of solid snaps – as it seemed that one lineman would get beat badly every time.
Tackle Austin Jackson, who missed last week after being on the COVID/Reserve list earlier, was back at practice. He says he feels strong and healthy, but reports said that he appeared winded. There are no words yet as to how the Dolphins will utilize him this week.
MIA Defense
The Dolphins defense was once again the strength of the team, forcing two fumbles, including a game-saving recovery in the 4th quarter.
The Dolphins defense is currently 2nd in the NFL in blitz, sending a blitz on 52.5% of plays. With that high blitz percentage, it shouldn’t be surprising that the defense is near the top in QB pressures. The Dolphins are currently 7th in the NFL in that statistic. Their eight quarterback knockdowns lead the NFL.
The Dolphins defensive line will be without Raekwon Davis, which will lead to more responsibility for Zach Sieler and for John Jenkins to fill the nose tackle role. Jenkins, whose first season was in 2013, hasn’t recorded a sack or a tackle for a loss since 2019. This will be a big test.
Linebacker Jerome Baker was back to leading the team in tackles – but many were disappointed with his performance in pass coverage. Last week, Baker gave up a catch on all five targets in his direction, for a team-high 57 yards.
It’s hard to critique the Dolphins secondary too hard after their showing against New England. It appeared that their game plan was to keep the ball in front of them, and Mac Jones was able to take advantage of that. Only five of Jones 29 completions were 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
While it doesn’t fall entirely on the secondary by any means, the Dolphins defense will have to be more effective on third down. Last week, the Patriots were 11-for-16 on third down attempts.
A look at the Bills
BUF Offense
The Bills will be led by MVP candidate Josh Allen. Allen was ridiculed early on his career, struggling especially with accuracy, but has turned into one of the biggest examples of progression in the NFL.
His completion percentage has jumped from 52.8% in his rookie season to 69.2%.
Last year, Allen had a monster season finishing with 4,544 yards passing and 37 touchdowns. He only threw 10 interceptions.
With that in mind, it came as a shock when Allen struggled last week. He finished 30-for-51, for 270 yards, 1 touchdown and a fumble.
The Bills offensive line is a massive reason why Allen appeared to struggle. Per Pro Football Reference, Allen was blitzed only one time. Despite the Steelers typically only sending four pass rushers, Allen was pressured on 36.4% of drop-backs, third-highest in the NFL.
Despite the offensive line struggling, running back Devin Singletary still had an effective outing. Singletary finished with 72 yards on 11 carries. Allen, who is known as a dual-threat quarterback, managed to pick up 44 yards on 9 carries.
Along with Singletary, the Bills also have Zach Moss and former-Dolphin Matt Breida. While Breida didn’t have an impact last week, he showed flashes in preseason that would remind any Dolphins fan about why they were excited when he initially joined the team.
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs had a monster year in 2020. Diggs led the NFL in catches (127) and yards (1,535).
Diggs is regarded as one of the team’s primary route-runners, in the conversation with Packers Davante Adams and Chargers Keenan Allen.
The first time these two teams faced off in 2020 led to a huge day for Diggs, who recorded eight catches for 153 yards and a touchdown. Diggs was lined up against Byron Jones initially. After Jones left the game with an injury, Diggs took advantage of an obvious mismatch with Noah Igbinoghene.
Diggs had a solid performance last week, recording 69 yards on 9 catches.
Receiver / Epidemiologist Cole Beasley had an impressive, somewhat underrated season last year. Beasley was second on the team in receiving yards with 967.
Beasley was featured heavily last week, leading the team in targets with 13. He would finish with eight catches for 60 yards.
The newly acquired veteran Emmanuel Sanders also made an impact in his regular season debut with the team. Sanders managed to rack up 52 yards on only 4 catches.
Second-year receiver Gabriel Davis had a touchdown in last week’s game. Davis’ 6’2, 210 frame makes him a touchdown machine. Miami learned this the hard way. Against Miami, Gabriel Davis has: 3 catches, 113 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
The Bills offensive line was getting absolutely exposed by the Pittsburg Steelers. Tackle Dion Dawkins recorded three holding penalties. Center Mitch Morse, guard Jon Feliciano, and tackle Darryl Williams each also had a holding call against them. And frankly, there should have been more penalties that were not called. It was just an absolutely lifeless performance from this Bills unit which will have a tough task stopping the Dolphins unique scheme.
BUF Defense
The Bills present a somewhat strong defensive unit. The Bills sent a fair amount of blitzes (35% of their plays, as compared to the Dolphins who blitzed on 41%.)
However, per PFF, the Bills faired better when they did not blitz. They played quarters coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, allowing them to prevent the deep pass. The Bills allowed an average depth of target of only 6.9 yards, which was the shortest in the NFL. The Bills were among the best in the league at preventing pass plays of 20+ yards and 40+ yards.
Despite the success at keeping the ball in front of them, the Bills tackling was a huge issue – as they finished with the 6th most missed tackles last season.
As mentioned earlier, Gesicki’s career-high in yardage came last year against the Bills. The Bills struggled heavily against the tight end position, as they gave up the most catches (92), and second-most yards (993) to the position in all of football.
Cornerback Tre’Davious White has been regarded as an elite cornerback over the last few years. He was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and 2020, and was a second-team All Pro last year.
Last week, White struggled to contain Chase Claypool, who “Mossed” him along the sideline. White surrendered three catches for 46 yards last week.
Cornerback Levi Wallace was picked on, giving up six catches and a touchdown. Despite that, he only surrendered 32 yards and did not have a missed tackle.
Safety Jordan Poyer led the team in tackles last year with 124. Poyer recorded a sack last week on Ben Roethlisberger.
Poyer was asked earlier this week about Jaylen Waddle and noted his explosiveness, saying the team was “going to have their hands full with him.”
Safety Micah Hyde hasn’t quite returned to his true elite form, as he was a second-team All Pro in 2017.
Hyde was in a red non-contact jersey at practice on Thursday. He was limited at practice with what appears to be a new neck injury. His status remains unknown.
An aging Ben Roethlisberger was reluctant to test the Bills deep last week, as he did not attempt a pass that traveled 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. However, he was able to connect on the earlier mentioned lob pass to Claypool, and a touchdown in the corner of the endzone over Levi Wallce.
Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was second on the team in tackles last year with 119. He has been a polarizing topic in pass coverage – at times appearing great, but other moments looking the complete opposite. Last year Edmunds surrendered 543 yards in coverage.
Linebacker Matt Milano is a large part of the Bills defense at the linebacker position. He led the team in tackles for a loss last week with two.
Both Milano and Edmunds were absent from the team’s first meeting last season – which was considered a big reason why Gesicki had such a massive performance.
Alongside the secondary, the Bills defensive line is the strong point of this defense.
Defensive end Mario Addison led the team in sacks last season with five. He recorded his first sack of 2021 last week.
Defensive end Jerry Hughes was flying in off the edge in Week 1. Despite his impact not showing in the stat column, his disruption was felt.
This tandem will still present a difficult challenge for this young offensive line group that struggled last week.
Expectations
Emmanuel Ogbah has at least one sack. After watching the Bills game last week, it’s jumps out how bad their offensive tackles struggled. Josh Allen mobility is dynamic, but even with the Steelers sending four pass-rushers, the o-line was dominated. I’m sure Allen will continue to work his magic at avoiding defenders, but even that will have it’s limits. Ogbah first got in the sack column last year against Buffalo, and I think this year will be the same.
The Bills connect on big plays offensively. It’s possible that the Dolphins defense adapts to stop the Bills pass attack – but it’s a tough challenge. Last season in Week 17, the Dolphins gave up passes of 56, 52 and 32 yards. In Week 2 of 2020 they gave up passes of 47, two of 46, and one of 38 yards. The Dolphins tendency of sending blitzes puts them in a good position to make turnovers – but leaves them prone to the big play. For now, the Bills are winning in that regard.
Mike Gesicki has at least 50 yards. The Bills have a solid group in their secondary. They were able to contain the running game last week, both on the ground and in the air. So while I think this will open up the potential for some bubble screens for the receivers – I think the Dolphins will need to utliize Gesicki to move the chains in those 2 or 3rd and long situations.
Keys to the Victory
Make their stars beat you. If Stefon Diggs lines up against Xavien Howard and still manages to torch the secondary, fine. If Josh Allen is playing like an MVP, rushing for over 70 yards or throwing 350 yards passing, okay. What the Dolphins can’t afford to do is let a guy like Devin Singletary record over 150 total yards. The Bills have depth – and some of the less experienced guys in the secondary will have to be ready for Miami. Don’t let Gabriel Davis have over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Or a guy like Isaiah McKenzie. Each of these guys bring a big play potential for Buffalo – and the Dolphins will have to be on their toes.
Have possibly the best offensive performance in recent years. The Bills did not play well last week. The Steelers defense played great. And even then, the Steelers needed some help with a blocked-punt to take command of the game. If the Dolphins don’t get the luxury of a special teams touchdown, and if the defense isn’t playing an absolutely lights out game – that means the offense will need rise to the occasion. There is a chance Tagovailoa will have to throw for 300+ yards in order to hang with the Bills.
The offensive line must improve. As mentioned last week – the offense taking the next step hinges on the offensive line. You need a big day from Tua? Or Gaskin and the running game to be more of a focus? Want to complete big plays down the field? None of that can happen until the offensive line improves. This group doesn’t need to turn into the 2015 Dallas Cowboys, they just need to look respectable for Miami to hang in there.