The Miami Dolphins (7-4) will face off against the Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1) this Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Dolphins are coming off of another strong performance against the New York Jets that was led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bengals have lost six of their last seven games and will have Brandon Allen making his second start, replacing the injured Joe Burrow.

A look at the Dolphins 

Offense:

• Total: 30th (312 ypg)
• Passing: 25th (217 ypg)
• Rushing: 30th (95 ypg)
  

As of the the time of this writing, the Dolphins quarterback situation is still up in the air. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is still listed as questionable for this game with a thumb injury. After last week’s game, coach Brian Flores said Tagovailoa will retain the starting role when he is healthy enough to return.

Earlier this week, Tagovailoa spoke about how he feels in regards to the injury.

“I’m feeling good,” Tagovailoa said. “I think that’s a question for coach Flo and our head trainer. As a competitor you always want to go out there and play, but Flo and our medical staff have the best interests for us.”

If Tagovailoa is able to play, he will be looking to bounce back from his worst performance of the season. In the team’s loss to the Broncos, he threw for only 83 yards. On the season, Tagovailoa has been primarily a game-manager. Aside his terrific offensive display against the Arizona Cardinals, his production has revolved around efficiency, and playing mistake-free football. 

On the season, Tagovailoa has: 602 yards, 61.9% CMP, 6 TDs. He has not thrown an interception this season.

If Tagovailoa is unable to go, it will mean another start for the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has undeniably been more effective at moving the ball downfield — but that is at the cost of a higher risk of costly turnovers. It’s part of the trade off between Fitzmagic and Fitztragic. 

Last week, Fitzpatrick looked solid, putting up 257 yards and two touchdowns. Again, this was against a Jets team that should make every opposing quarterback look outstanding — so with that in mind, his solid performance should be the bare-minimum.

Fitzpatrick’s downfield ability has led to better games from tight end Mike Gesicki and receiver DeVante Parker. Both of them irrefutably benefit of off having Fitzpatrick as opposed to Tagovailoa — but that’s only in the current time. Tagovailoa very obviously presents more long-term promise and upside, but as of right now, the Dolphins top receivers thrive more with Fitzpatrick.

Receiver DeVante Parker is coming off of his best game of the season, totaling 119 yards receiving. Parker’s numbers are down from last year, which is likely a product of not playing behind as much. Last year, he finished with 1,202 yards. This season, he is on pace for 934 yards.

Tight end Mike Gesicki has a very high ceiling in terms of his athleticism. Last week, he displayed it on his 13-yard touchdown where he leaped over a defender to make the contested catch. He at times has been used as more of the teams slot receiver than a typical tight end. Despite that, Gesicki has disappeared more often than not this season. He has two games with over 90 yards receiving, and four games with under 16. Oof.

Parker is last in the NFL in separation, and Gesicki is second to last, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

The running game situation is also a big question mark for Miami. Running back DeAndre Washington led the team in carries last week, and looked pretty good — but he is now listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Running back Myles Gaskin, who has missed the last four games with a sprained MCL, could be returning this week, but as of the time of this writing, he is still on the Injury Reserve list.

Running back Salvon Ahmed, who had a solid couple games as the Dolphins lead back in place of Gaskin, missed last week with a shoulder injury and is currently listed as questionable, and practiced in limited fashion on Thursday.

The remaining backs are Matt Breida and Patrick Laird, who both had potentially costly fumbles in last week’s games. Breida displayed some solid burst last week, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, but quickly lost the bulk of the work after his fumble.

Breida, who may end up buried behind Gaskin, Ahmed and Washington on the depth chart when everyone is healthy — may get a shot as the lead back here if the guys mentioned above can’t play.

The offensive line for Miami had an underwhelming performance last week, allowing Fitzpatrick to be sacked four times. Guard Solomon Kindley, who missed last week’s game, practiced in limited fashion Thursday.

Defense:

• Total: 20th (370 ypg)
• Passing: 17th (240 ypg)
• Rushing: 26th (130 ypg)

The Dolphins defense has been the strong side of this team.

Cornerback Xavien Howard has catapulted into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation, as he leads the NFL in interceptions with seven. Howard is phenomenal at positioning himself to get these picks. Just last week, he had two other potential interceptions that were dropped. Howard has been targeted a team high 74 times this season, but has surrendered a team low 46% completion rate. Opponents need to learn that it’s time not to throw on Howard.

Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah is having a terrific season, as he has eight sacks, which is 8th in the NFL. On top of that, he has three strips, two of those resulted in defensive touchdowns for the Dolphins. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, Ogbah has not recorded a sack in the last two games. 

Safeties Bobby McCain and Eric Rowe have done a tremendous job at neutralizing opponents this season. McCain has only one missed tackle on the season. Rowe, who has been tasked with covering tight ends for much of the season, has played a large role in the team’s success against the position. The Dolphins have given up the fifth fewest yards versus tight ends this year, with only 422 yards allowed.

The Dolphins front is coming off two games that were less than stellar against the run. They allowed 87 to the Jets last week, but the 189 rushing yards allowed against the Broncos very likely cost the team the game.

A look at the Bengals

• Total: 24th (332 ypg)
• Passing: 18th (235 ypg)
• Rushing: 29th (96 ypg)
  

The Bengals are led offensively by Brandon Allen, the fifth-year quarterback who is filling in for the injured rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. Allen didn’t look terrible last week against the New York Giants, as it was clear the team’s plan was to get the ball out quick. The Giants zone coverage also relied making key tackles by allowing the underneath routes to be completed. That game plan appeared to work as Allen only completed three passes beyond 10 yards, and 78 of Allen’s 136 passing yards were after the catch. 

The Dolphins defense, who have taken on more of an aggressor role this season, could implement a similar plan here against Cincinnati. The Dolphins are in the bottom half of missed tackles, so it could prove to be beneficial for them as well. However, this sort of plan would run completely against everything the Dolphins defense has been doing this season.

Before Burrow’s injury, he was averaging 40.4 pass attempts per game, which was the most attempts per game in the NFL. The Bengals are currently fourth in pass attempts this season, but 15th in passing yards. Considering the weaknesses at the offensive line, and not having the greatest weapons offensively, Burrow’s start looked pretty good. Because of that, many of the receivers around him also looked good.

Receiver Tee Higgins is the team’s primary receiver. He took over the role from A.J. Green and hasn’t looked back, as he has the second most receiving yards among rookies with 673 yards. Higgins is 6’4” and looks like a less physical version of a young DeVante Parker or Allen Robinson. He has been extremely reliable, as he has either 60+ yards receiving or a touchdown in eight of his 10 games this season. With Burrow as the quarterback, it was hard to picture anything slowing Higgins — but last week Allen targeted Higgins only five times, which was a season low for the rookie. 

Receiver Tyler Boyd, who works as the Bengals slot receiver, is their most productive receiver this season. He leads the team in nearly all the major receiving categories, including targets, catches and yards. He is 7th in the NFL in receptions. 

Like Higgins, Boyd also suffered from the loss of Joe Burrow. His three catches for 15 yards were a season-low in both categories.

It pains me to write this, but A.J. Green is not the same player he once was. One of the most productive receivers of this last generation — someone who is criminally underrated and deserves to be mentioned with Julio Jones and Antonio Brown — is just not the same player anymore. Green is tied for last in the NFL in separation with DeVante Parker, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Tight end Drew Sample had one of his best performances of the year last week, as he had four catches for 40 yards.

The Bengals running game will likely be led by running back Giovanni Bernard. Bernard will be filling in for Joe Mixon, who has missed the past five games with an foot injury.

Historically, Bernard has done a great job at filling as the lead back when the team needs him. He also has been one of the more productive receiving backs in the past decade. Again, with Allen as the quarterback, I’m not sure if we will see Bernard showcase his effectiveness as in previous years. The talent and athleticism is still there, but Allen’s limitations may hold him back. Last week, he combined for only 49 total yards. 

The Bengals offensive line has been a big weakness of the team. The Bengals quarterbacks have been sacked 38 times this season, which is second in the NFL behind only the Eagles. Left tackle Jonah Williams has by far been the best offensive lineman for the team, while the rest of the unit has ranged from average to downright bad. Tackle Bobby Hart became an internet meme for his poor performances this season – with many suggesting he is the worst lineman in all of football.

Defense

• Total: 26th (391 ypg)
• Passing: 22nd (254 ypg)
• Rushing: 30th (137 ypg)

Safety Jessie Bates III has been receiving a ton of praise this year, with many asking if he is becoming one of the best safeties in football. Bates is Pro Football Focus’ #1 safety this season, and is a Pro Bowl candidate for the Bengals.

Safety Vonn Bell leads the Bengals in tackles this season, and had a big forced fumble last week that gave the team an opportunity to score.

Despite the solid play from the safeties, the Bengals have given up the fourth most passes of 20+ yards this season.

The Bengals are 30th in the NFL in total sacks with 13. They are in the top half of blitzes sent this season, but have the fewest pressures on the quarterback in the entire NFL. Defensive end Carl Lawson leads the team in sacks with 4.5, and is the only player on the team with more than one sack.

Rookie linebacker Logan Wilson has been a pleasant surprise for the team. He leads the team in tackles for a loss with four, and is second on the team in interceptions with two.

The Bengals overall have struggled to cause many turnovers, primarily fumbles. The team has the fourth fewest turnovers caused on the season.

Expectations:

We see one of the better passing games from Miami this season. The offensive line looked solid early on, but several rough performances recently from the unit really hurt the passing game. This week’s matchup against the Bengals should allow them to get their confidence up, and provide some quality time for the Dolphins quarterbacks — who have had the second shortest time from snap to release in the NFL.

The Dolphins defense overpowers the Bengals offensive line. Last week, we saw the Giants utilize zone coverage to drop back and allow underneath routes to be completed. They took a very passive approach, that minimized the risk of giving up a big play. The Dolphins could theoretically do that, and probably have success, but I would be surprised if they don’t act as a shark smelling blood in the water in this game. The Dolphins have been aggressive all season, and sending heavy blitzes, and forcing Allen to make bad decisions, is likely the route they will take in this one.

It’s a great game for Mike Gesicki. The Dolphins lack of weapons leaves a massive opportunity for Gesicki to thrive. If Fitzpatrick is in, that is obviously good for Gesicki. However, after Gailey and Flores emphasized that Tua needs to take more chances, Gesicki’s massive frame makes him the perfect candidate to take more chances to. Plus, the Bengals have surrendered 718 yards to tight ends, which is the most in the NFL.

Keys to Victory

Shut down Giovani Bernard. Realistically, Brandon Allen should not be able to dice up this defense, so the Bengals will likely try the same approach the Broncos used two weeks ago: run the ball. Bernard is a very capable, and shifty back. He is very capable of capitalizing off missed tackles, and with his usage in the pass game, the Dolphins have to expect a heavy dosage from him this week.

Don’t miss tackles. The Bengals were unable to get anything going downfield, and instead utilized the short passes to Boyd, Higgins and Bernard. There is a high likelihood they try this again this week — and that means that the secondary will have to make tackles. Especially if the Dolphins are sending heavy blitzes, which leaves fewer people back for help. With McCain and Needham each only having one missed tackle this season, my confidence in this group is relatively high.

Don’t beat yourself. This is another game that should be easy for Miami, unless they are beating themselves. The bengals game last week against the Giants was close, but it was close after the Giants fumbled a ball in their own territory and also gave up a touchdown on special teams. The Dolphins can’t afford fumbles on consecutive drives like last week, or a muffed punt. The Bengals offense should struggle – so don’t give them a short field.

 

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